I say, what, what?
"Operation Unthinkable" Launched- Germany and the Western Allies Attack the USSR - What would happen?
Towards the end of the war, Winston Churchill devised Operation Unthinkable. This operation obviously never came into effect but it detailed Germany, USA and the UK and other Western Ally nations attacking the USSR. Germany couldn't hold off the Soviets alone, but what would happen if this came into effect immediately after a German surrender to the West? Could the combined forces be enough to push the USSR back to Russia and remove the Communist government from power?
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Vicarius
Re: "Operation Unthinkable" Launched- Germany and the Western Allies Attack the USSR - What would happen?
Only a seperate peace as early as 1944 might have allowed for an Allied success against the Soviets. By 1945 the balance was just to much in favour of the Soviets. While the Western Allies might have eventually managed to evict the Soviets from Europe the costs would have been unbearable. Future prospects for Europe would have been dim and the only reason to celebrate would be that the bloodshed would have finally been over.
Last edited by SorelusImperion; March 14, 2011 at 05:45 PM.
Frederick II of Prussia: "All Religions are equal and good, if only the people that practice them are honest people; and if Turks and heathens came and wanted to live here in this country, we would build them mosques and churches."
Norge: "Give me a break. Nothing would make you happier than to see the eagle replaced with a crescent."
Ummon:"enforcing international law will require that the enforcers do not respect it"
Olmstead v USA:"Crime is contagious. If the government becomes a lawbreaker, it breeds contempt for law; it invites every man to become a law unto himself; it invites anarchy. To declare that in the administration of the criminal law the end justifies the means-to declare that the government may commit crimes in order to secure the conviction of a private criminal-would bring terrible retribution. Against that pernicious doctrine this court should resolutely set its face."
Holiness is in right action, and courage on behalf of those who can't defend themselfs.
When you stand before god you can not say "I was told by others to do this" or that virtue was not convenient at the time
hoi polloi
Re: "Operation Unthinkable" Launched- Germany and the Western Allies Attack the USSR - What would happen?
Depends really, you need something to really motivate the US/UK side.
As is no, that is no in the History that was I just don't the US and UK mustering the interest to fight another war with domestic support.
I will add another post later but I would suggest that it must follow from a marginally more successful Western Campaign and the USSR delayed a bit (both reasonably viable options) - the turning point being that Western backed Polish troops and the UK backed Polish government make it to some fragment of Poland. In that case I would say all bets were off Stalin would not tolerate a pro-UK/US Poland and the US and UK I don't think would wash their hands of the Western backed Polish Government in that case.
IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites
'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'
But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.
Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.
vezir-i âzam
Re: "Operation Unthinkable" Launched- Germany and the Western Allies Attack the USSR - What would happen?
It was named Operation Unthinkable for a reason you know.
Re: "Operation Unthinkable" Launched- Germany and the Western Allies Attack the USSR - What would happen?
truly unthinkable
might've worked too i reckon with the aid of several a-bombs
Biarchus
Re: "Operation Unthinkable" Launched- Germany and the Western Allies Attack the USSR - What would happen?
I think a better question would be if Axis and Allies allied against Soviets in WW2.
Vicarius
Re: "Operation Unthinkable" Launched- Germany and the Western Allies Attack the USSR - What would happen?
Such an alliance would have meant almost certain defeat for the Soviets if it would have been concluded while the Wehrmacht was still on relatively equal footing with the Soviets (till about 1942/43) even after the battle of Kursk they would probably have won if they would have adapted a good strategy to deal with the Soviet forces untill the arrival of US reinforcements. After Bagration however it gets more difficult and we are arriving at "Operation Unthinkable again".I think a better question would be if Axis and Allies allied against Soviets in WW2.
Last edited by SorelusImperion; March 15, 2011 at 05:27 AM.
Frederick II of Prussia: "All Religions are equal and good, if only the people that practice them are honest people; and if Turks and heathens came and wanted to live here in this country, we would build them mosques and churches."
Norge: "Give me a break. Nothing would make you happier than to see the eagle replaced with a crescent."
Ummon:"enforcing international law will require that the enforcers do not respect it"
Olmstead v USA:"Crime is contagious. If the government becomes a lawbreaker, it breeds contempt for law; it invites every man to become a law unto himself; it invites anarchy. To declare that in the administration of the criminal law the end justifies the means-to declare that the government may commit crimes in order to secure the conviction of a private criminal-would bring terrible retribution. Against that pernicious doctrine this court should resolutely set its face."
Holiness is in right action, and courage on behalf of those who can't defend themselfs.
When you stand before god you can not say "I was told by others to do this" or that virtue was not convenient at the time
Comes Domesticorum
Re: "Operation Unthinkable" Launched- Germany and the Western Allies Attack the USSR - What would happen?
Irony enough, the only time I successed Operation Unthinkable against Soviet in HoI2 was using Italy... And I only success because I pulled the operation in 1944, when German was still deep in Soviet (I backstabbed Germany by joining Allies, then launched my campaign into Soviet and forcing Allies to join the war).
Last edited by hellheaven1987; March 15, 2011 at 04:24 AM.
Originally Posted by Markas
Civitate
Re: "Operation Unthinkable" Launched- Germany and the Western Allies Attack the USSR - What would happen?
With the use of atomic weaponry and correct timing the Allies could very well defeat the Red Army: much of the Red Army transferred East to fight the Japanese, and Allies had around 5 million men ready to go and the Wehrmacht still had a million soldiers that had surrendered in the West.
The Allies would be outnumbered indeed, they could probably muster 10 million men at the most against the Red Army. If they attacked while the Red Army was dealing with Japan, and learned well the lessons the Germans had, victory could be had. It'd be a dangerous offensive, and very much hanging in the balance for much of it, but not a stone cold impossibility.
Atomic bombs dropped on Soviet industrial centres and Moscow would paralyse the USSR and prevent organised resistance from quickly forming.
Praefectus
Re: "Operation Unthinkable" Launched- Germany and the Western Allies Attack the USSR - What would happen?
Correct me if I'm wrong but didn't the red army have trouble with manpower at the end of the war and had to send men home to work in the factories whereas the manpower reserve in the U.S was enormous? I think the allies would have defeated the Red Army eventually in a Operation Unthinkable scenario since the industrial power of the U.S would keep going while the Soviet one would be bombed to dust by strategic bombers, furthermore the nukes would devastate the Soviets. It would be hard to motivate attacking a former ally to the public after 6 years of war though.
These fine gentlemen's have thanks to their consistent idiotic posts have earned their place on my ignore list: mrmouth, The Illusionist, motiv-8, mongrel, azoth, thorn777 and elfdude. If you want to join their honourable rank you just have to post idiotic posts and you will get there in no time.
Civitate
Re: "Operation Unthinkable" Launched- Germany and the Western Allies Attack the USSR - What would happen?
In addition, how significant was lend-lease to the USSR in '45? Did it still rely on the US for war goods in the closing year of the war?
hoi polloi
Re: "Operation Unthinkable" Launched- Germany and the Western Allies Attack the USSR - What would happen?
Deliveries were still large and the bigger issue was that the fact of LL had skewed Soviet production. With its end they would have faced very costly retooling efforts in a number of sectors and issues with spare parts and lack of easy access to things like specialized machine tools they had been getting via LL. The Tu-4 project is a good example high priority during and after the war and yet it still a fairly long time to clone the B-29 from scratch. The situation would be the same with many LL supplied vehicles or aircraft, they would dwindle to lack of spare parts and the relative cost of trying to retool to make such parts (say for Studebaker vs just retooling back to a GazAA)In addition, how significant was lend-lease to the USSR in '45? Did it still rely on the US for war goods in the closing year of the war?
IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites
'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'
But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.
Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.
Dux Limitis
Re: "Operation Unthinkable" Launched- Germany and the Western Allies Attack the USSR - What would happen?
Quite large, the Soviets used certain equipment alot, like American radios for tanks. The end of lend-lease probably wouldn't have grind production to a halt but the Soviets would run into problems with inferior equipment.
Peaceful agreement and government by consent are possible only on the basis of ideas common to all parties; and these ideas must spring from habit and from history. Once reason is introduced, every man, every class, every nation becomes a law unto itself; and the only right which reason understands is the right of the stronger. Reason formulates universal principles and is therefore intolerant: there can be only one rational society, one rational nation, ultimately one rational man. Decisions between rival reasons can be made only by force.
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A mhaireas buan gu bràth?
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Civitate
Re: "Operation Unthinkable" Launched- Germany and the Western Allies Attack the USSR - What would happen?
So, in the opening months of the invasion: much of the Red Army is in the East, atomic bombs fall on Moscow and a few select centres of industry or control (atomic arsenal allowing, of course) and Russian industry experiences shortages of a number of basic supplies and tools due to the end of Lend-Lease.
Assuming the Allies are not stupid and fall into the same traps the Wehrmacht did (which still has around a million men from the West plus whatever was left from the East, only 100,000 were to be re-equipped right away but a steady re-armament would be possible) they could easily push beyond the boundaries the Germans did, and wouldn't have to divert resources into the Caucasus mountains because the Allies weren't struggling for oil: we could simply bomb the oil wells from British Iraq.
hoi polloi
Re: "Operation Unthinkable" Launched- Germany and the Western Allies Attack the USSR - What would happen?
I'm not so sure the allies would use Atomic weapons on key cites in most cases unless they were desperate. The US and UK would have real ideological edge and could appeal to lots of places in the USSR with a return to independence. I can see them used to maximize the destruction of the Baku area petroleum production and used tactically against Soviet troops but I think the US and UK would be cautious. It also depends how the war stated.
IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites
'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'
But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.
Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.
Vicarius
Re: "Operation Unthinkable" Launched- Germany and the Western Allies Attack the USSR - What would happen?
First you'll have to get the Bombers through the intact Soviet Airforce. Flying unhindered over Japan which had most of it's airforce destroyed and held the rest as reserve for Kamikaze waves against the expected invasion is one thing. Evading the Red Airforce however won't be as easy.So, in the opening months of the invasion: much of the Red Army is in the East, atomic bombs fall on Moscow and a few select centres of industry or control (atomic arsenal allowing, of course
Last but not least the Nuclear Arsenal was very limited. Hiroshima and Nagasaki depleted it and it would take quite a bit of time to produce enough more Nuclear Weapons.
Frederick II of Prussia: "All Religions are equal and good, if only the people that practice them are honest people; and if Turks and heathens came and wanted to live here in this country, we would build them mosques and churches."
Norge: "Give me a break. Nothing would make you happier than to see the eagle replaced with a crescent."
Ummon:"enforcing international law will require that the enforcers do not respect it"
Olmstead v USA:"Crime is contagious. If the government becomes a lawbreaker, it breeds contempt for law; it invites every man to become a law unto himself; it invites anarchy. To declare that in the administration of the criminal law the end justifies the means-to declare that the government may commit crimes in order to secure the conviction of a private criminal-would bring terrible retribution. Against that pernicious doctrine this court should resolutely set its face."
Holiness is in right action, and courage on behalf of those who can't defend themselfs.
When you stand before god you can not say "I was told by others to do this" or that virtue was not convenient at the time
hoi polloi
Re: "Operation Unthinkable" Launched- Germany and the Western Allies Attack the USSR - What would happen?
Not so much the Soviet air force had zero experience with the scope of US/UK long range bombing. Particularity at night it had no answer for the kind of high altitude long range fighter escorted night bombing the US and UK could deliver by 45/46. Easy maybe not but don't forget the CBO overwhelmed the the Germans whose air defense was stronger than anything the USSR had and the US and UK were on cusp of bring another generation of aircraft to the fight in 45 (B-32, F-82 etc). Most Soviet fighters were optimized for low level operations, and the German never had the scale, reach or high altitude capability that the US and UK could bring and from all around the USSR not just one limited front.First you'll have to get the Bombers through the intact Soviet Airforce. Flying unhindered over Japan which had most of it's airforce destroyed and held the rest as reserve for Kamikaze waves against the expected invasion is one thing. Evading the Red Airforce however won't be as easy.
Umm no the US was on track to have ~7 weapons ready for downfall (Oct 45) and another 7-10 ready before the end of the year.Last but not least the Nuclear Arsenal was very limited. Hiroshima and Nagasaki depleted it and it would take quite a bit of time to produce enough more Nuclear Weapons.
Last edited by conon394; March 16, 2011 at 11:31 AM.
IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites
'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'
But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.
Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.
Civitate
Re: "Operation Unthinkable" Launched- Germany and the Western Allies Attack the USSR - What would happen?
7 weapons would allow for, at the very least, Moscow to be destroyed: this could paralyse the Red Army command, allowing the Allies to capitalise on this in the opening stages of the war.
hoi polloi
Re: "Operation Unthinkable" Launched- Germany and the Western Allies Attack the USSR - What would happen?
I still cannot see the US or UK actually advocating the Atomic destruction of Moscow in any case but an obvious attack by the USSR first, leaving the US and UK in a desperate situation. In any other case mutual issues leading to war or a US/UK provoked war I just don't see the justification.7 weapons would allow for, at the very least, Moscow to be destroyed: this could paralyse the Red Army command, allowing the Allies to capitalise on this in the opening stages of the war.
IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites
'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'
But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.
Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.
Rex Regum
Re: "Operation Unthinkable" Launched- Germany and the Western Allies Attack the USSR - What would happen?
I think this was the best chance for the Allies to win a war against the USSR.
In 1945, Britain was probably in the best shape since the start of the WW2, in both quality and quantity.
Her navy and air force were unmatched for the Soviets and her land force had considerable experience. Of course, USA was practically unaffected by WW2, with a huge industry and huge and almost untouched manpower. Compared to them, the Soviets had received enormous manpower losses and even the oldest classes of soldiers had been mobilized, with people 45 or 50 years fighting in some formations. The area from Moscow and Stalingrad to Poland had received enormous damage in terms of transportation and industry. Of course nobody denies that the SU had a lot of experienced divisions but I think this is the country that suffered the most during WW2, how can they possibly face the untouched Americans? As long as the Allies would be able to keep their supply lines intact and move large units to Europe it would be easy for them to advance. However, if they moved further into Russia their supply lines would be difficult to maintain because they would be far from the ports.
Under the patronage of Emperor Maximinus Thrax
"Steps to be taken in case Russia should be forced out of war considered. Various movements [of ] troops to and from different fronts necessary to meeting possible contingencies discussed. Conference also weighed political, economic, and moral effect both upon Central and Allied powers under most unfavorable aspect from Allied point of view. General conclusions reached were necessity for adoption of purely defensive attitude on all secondary fronts and withdrawing surplus troops for duty on western front. By thus strengthening western front [those attending] believed Allies could hold until American forces arrive in numbers sufficient to gain ascendancy."
~General Pershing, report to Washington, 26 July 1917
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