Britain loses at Trafalgar

[irontaino]

Would it have had any effect on their naval dominance other than their self esteem?

[Poach]

The fleet under Nelson that engaged and defeated the Franco-Spanish Navy was largely comprised of ships from the Med Sea fleet as I recall. A defeat at Trafalgar would have seen warships from the Channel and North Sea fleets scrambled to form a defence in the Channel itself.

The RN easily outnumbered the French and Spanish fleets combined: defeat at Trafalgar would have been a crushing blow to pride as well as taking out a good chunk of the RNs fleet, but they had ships to spare.

[conon394]

I imagine Poach is right - I doubt it would lead to the French marching to London anytime soon. Mostly because its hard to see the British loosing easily, but a hard fought victory for Nappy's fleet is an interesting thought.

I wonder would it deflect Napoleon's attention away from the War with Russia and instead make him perhaps focus on Britain. Sure England had more ships (and more ability to make more with better crews faster) but French/Spanish Naval pride would get a huge boost - enough to change where the emperor decided to try and fundamentally alter the balance of power?

[irontaino]

I imagine Poach is right - I doubt it would lead to the French marching to London anytime soon. Mostly because its hard to see the British loosing easily, but a hard fought victory for Nappy's fleet is an interesting thought.

I wonder would it deflect Napoleon's attention away from the War with Russia and instead make him perhaps focus on Britain. Sure England had more ships (and more ability to make more with better crews faster) but French/Spanish Naval pride would get a huge boost - enough to change where the emperor decided to try and fundamentally alter the balance of power?

Can't imagine Britain's morale being very high if it happened

[Antigenes]

I cannot imagine a scenario more disastrous to Napoleon's empire than a successful crossing of the Channel, especially if Napoleon himself went along.

[VALIS]

I cannot imagine a scenario more disastrous to Napoleon's empire than a successful crossing of the Channel, especially if Napoleon himself went along.

Yeah? I reckon Napoleon would have stomped a mudhole out of Britain had he invaded. A 1-2 million battle hardend pre-Russian invasion Imperial Armee would have made mincemeat out of the puny British military.

The Royal Navy and the few miles of water in the Channel was Britains greatest hope and defence in that war.

[Azog 150]

^^Exactly. How would he have hoped to get 1-2 million men over to the British Isles? There is a reason Britain had a massive navy and a small army- the fact it was an island. If it wasn't an island you can be sure it would have concentrated on its army like the rest of Europe.

[irontaino]

Where would the nearest fleet have been if Nelson's fleet was destroyed at Trafalgar?

[Antigenes]

Yeah? I reckon Napoleon would have stomped a mudhole out of Britain had he invaded. A 1-2 million battle hardend pre-Russian invasion Imperial Armee would have made mincemeat out of the puny British military.

The Royal Navy and the few miles of water in the Channel was Britains greatest hope and defence in that war.

It is a good thing, then, that Napoleon didn't have one to two million men with which to invade the United Kingdom.

If Napoleon's fleet successfully shook off the British Mediterranean Fleet or destroyed it, and returned to the Channel in time to give the Emperor his eighteen hour window or whatever it was for him to get his invasion barges across the Channel, what happens next? British home defense forces, while certainly outclassed by the French regulars in terms of quality, would undoubtedly have not been annihilated immediately upon Napoleon's entry into the UK. And the Royal Navy is still vastly larger than the Franco-Spanish fleet; the Channel crossing is on borrowed time until the British marshal the remainder of their navy to clear the Channel again. Once that happens, now what? Napoleon's got a sizable chunk of his best quality troops in southern England, cut off from the rest of his Empire, with their only supplies constituted by whatever they can take from the British. If Napoleon himself has gone over to the UK, his Empire back in Europe is essentially headless - or at the very least under the control of Fouché and/or Talleyrand - and bereft of a sizable part of the army. The Russians had already acceded to the Third Coalition at that time, the Austrians were almost certain to join, and the Prussians would find it nigh impossible to sit on the fence with such a large portion of Napoleon's army in England. The Third Coalition would probably crush the French military within a year, and much of that due to marching time, not French military opposition - less if Napoleon went with his army into the UK.

And, of course, there's the ongoing debate as to whether Napoleon meant the whole bit about the invasion seriously.

[Poach]

Where would the nearest fleet have been if Nelson's fleet was destroyed at Trafalgar?

There were squadrons based in the Channel and North Sea; both of which I would expect would be rushed into the Channel to face the Franco-Spanish fleet sailing from Trafalgar. It is essentially impossible for the French to open the Channel at this time, the Royal Navy simply had too many ships at hand.