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Thread: Phocas dies in freak accident

  1. #1

    Default Phocas dies in freak accident

    Flavius Phocas rebels against Emperor Maurice in AD 602, and marches on Constantinople. However, in this hypothetical scenario, he dies in a freak accident (say, drowning in a river a la Frederick Barbarossa) his troops flounder around in confusion while Maurice rallies and gathers support. Maurice is then able to crush the rebellion. The Revolt of Phocas makes Maurice moderate his policies in order to prevent another such incident, but he is still committed to fiscal restraint.

    With no Phocas, Khosrau II doesn't invade the Roman Empire as long as Maurice lives (Let's say he lives for another ten years). There is no civil war, and though Heraclius does not take the throne, the empire is strong due to stability and a full treasury. Theodosius, son of Maurice, succeeds his father. Khosrau II invades, but this is a far more limited conflict than the Great Persian War that occurred in our history. After some clashes, the two countries make peace. One of Khosrau's sons becomes shah on his death in 635, and Persia avoids the massive turmoil that occurred historically.

    The Arabs invade in 634. They are a truly formidable force, but the Romans and Persians are not weakened by war and civil strife. The Arabs are able to win several victories in Syria and Mesopotamia, but both empires are able to withstand the losses, and send in reinforcements, fighting the Arabs to a standstill.

    The point of divergence in this scenario is, of course, Phocas' death. Is this course of events likely? How would things have turned out differently without Phocas as emperor?

  2. #2
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    Default Re: Phocas dies in freak accident

    The course of events is certainly a possible one. No revolt on the Danube is semi-popular among Internet althistorians. Of course, Maurikios was pretty unpopular anyway, but okay. He can probably ride it out. We'll just assume he's more personally popular than Nikephoros Phokas was.

    Overall, I dunno if Phokas' stillborn revolt would induce the Emperor towards letting up on the retrenchment policies. Remember, this was in fact the second attempt to winter troops north of the Danube, and several other of Maurikios' Balkan initiatives were threatened by revolt, but were seen through anyway. Maybe he would ease off on the cost-cutting a bit, but I somehow doubt it. It doesn't really matter in the long term, though.

    Most of the rest of it is hard to argue against, except maybe the whole Arab thing. I'm not entirely sure why everything happens in the Hijaz as it did in OTL, even though the PoD is in 602. Awfully deterministic, that. Of course, it's hard to know what to replace a world-historical event with, so...
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  3. #3

    Default Re: Phocas dies in freak accident

    How would events in the Roman and Persian empires influence what happened in Arabia? My impression is that, with the exception of client states on the border, both empires ignored what went on there. With no interference, Islam develops as it did historically. Of course, I welcome getting told why I am wrong; that's how I learn stuff.

    What I really want to discuss is how the Arabs would fare against the Roman and Persian empires that are not worn out by foreign and civil wars. Would they move along the same path as they did historically, or would they expand southwards and eastwards as a maritime power?

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    Default Re: Phocas dies in freak accident

    Butterflies alone ought to change Arabia. Discussing how exactly things would have changed breaks down very quickly when you consider that the overwhelming majority of our understanding of the development of Islam is very...tenuously based. I don't believe there are any narratives that command anything like a consensus. For instance, it's up for debate how long the Sasanians were forced to deal with Arab military pressure in Mesopotamia; for some, it doesn't happen until the 630s, while other narratives seize on indications that give Sasano-Arabian conflict agency for the general weakening of the Empire during the later campaigns of Herakleios in the 610s and 620s.
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