Ögedei Khan never dies; Mongols press on

[NotYetRegistered]

Hello, everyone.

I was just wondering, what if Ogedai Khan never died and Batu decided to press on? Would he have been able to subdue the Holy Roman Empire, with it's many forts, forests and such? Also, would it be possible that the Papacy would interfere?

Thanks in advance.

[piroska]

I don't know, but this is cool:

[NotYetRegistered]

I don't know, but this is cool:

Wow, that was an epic video, mate. +rep

[The Fishman]

Wow, that was an epic video, mate. +rep

That is indisputably the most epic Mongol-related thing on the internet. I have it saved to my computer. It doesn't even have a name, but it doesn't need one.

As for Batu, I think that he would have had a tough time fighting through the Holy Roman Empire, but would eventually disband the Imperial structure of the country and vassalise many of the principalities. The Mongols would then attack France and raze Paris. The rest of the north of France would be burned too. The Mongols would probably not be willing to conquer the country outright, so the remains of the kingdom would be made a vassal. With the north in ruins, French power might have shifted south to the Occitan, just as Russian power shiften north following the destruction of Kiev.

Italy would have fallen more easily to the Mongols thanks to drier weather and more open plains to graze horses on. Venice would probably remain independent, and Mongol forces would probably be forced to rely on Venetian hospitality in the Italian campaign.

With all of Europe subdued or conquered, the Hordes would be able to direct their full wrath towards the Middle East. However, by this time the Khaganate would have probably started to splinter, so any Mongol victory against Egypt would be unlikely. If the collapse of the Empire simply didn't happen though, the Mongols would have likely crushed the Mamlukes and conquered North Africa, allowing them to invade Morroco and Spain.

Europe under Mongol rule would progress very differently. Feudalism would probably collapse, Germany and France would be divided non-entities, and a centralised kingdom similar to modern Russia would emerge from the Khanate in Poland and Hungary. The Renaissance in Europe would be halted, but new knowledge would also be brought over from the east by the invaders, so social and technological progress would continue to an extent. With the Pax Mongolica opening up free trade with distant China, European exploration in order to find new trade routes would be unnecessary. America would remain undiscovered, and Colonialism probably wouldn't have begun.
With the death of Feudalism, ideas of individual rights would be more limited, and the 'Englightenment' would be snuffed out before it began, in favor of authoritarianism. Mongol rulers in Eastern Europe would probably convert to Christianity of some description, while the 'Golden Horde' or whatever this universe calls it might still become Muslim thanks to the large numbers of Turkic Muslims within it's borders.

[Jaketh]

England would still be chilling up in there island, Scandinavia probably would be unharmed as well

[The Fishman]

England would still be chilling up in there island, Scandinavia probably would be unharmed as well

Yes, a Mongol invasion of England would be unlikely. England and Scandinavia would probably survive in a similar way to how Novgorod did.

[Henry X]

Well then colonialism would have started anyway, just for different reasons.

Conversely, freedom was a large part of Mongol culture from what I understand. No Mongol or conquered citizen was above the law, which was often very fair.

[NotYetRegistered]

Thanks for all your responses! +rep to the Fishman, though, the Mongols tried to invade Japan, so why not England?

[Xellos_Moon]

Thanks for all your responses! +rep to the Fishman, though, the Mongols tried to invade Japan, so why not England?

Japan was closer. Europe is a lot of territory to conquer so it would take years before something bad happens to the mongols like a civil war....

[UnstableMustard]

With all due respect, I disagree.

Yes the Mongols were epic, and yes Subudei and Chepe Noyan were the most awesome generals the world has ever seen (in my opinion), but the Mongols conquering all of Europe simply isn't realistic. I'd advise you to read Turning Points in Military History by William R. Weir. He specifically addresses this question in chapters 3 and 4, arguing that the Mongols would not have been able to effectively besiege and capture all of the castles in Europe. By this point (mid 1200s), there were thousands of castles in Europe. While the Mongols did have success in besieging some castles and fortifications, they simply would not have had the will or the manpower to press into the heart of Europe or Western Europe. They probably would have taken over and annexed Hungary, Poland, Estonia/Latvia/Lithuania, and Austria, but it would difficult to effectively besiege the Holy Roman Empire with the amount of fortification that they possessed. Keep in mind the Mongols were rather new at siege warfare, while the Europeans had been practicing both the offense and defense of siege warfare for centuries. Furthermore, even if the Mongols captured a number of castles and fortifications, it would impossible to hold all of them due to counterattacks. Scorched Earth tactics would present another problem, and if the Mongols relied on supply caravans or supply lines, any bypassed castle of bypassed fortified town could raid their supply caravans. Manpower would be the biggest issue, but you also have to ask "why would the Mongols even want central of western Europe?". Hungary, Poland, and Austria, are all rich grazing grasslands that Mongols could pasture and raise horses in. Germany and France were mainly agrarian and good for farming. The Mongols did not farm. They had no use for farm land. Germany and France may have been raided, in Attila-esque type raids were they took what they could and then got out of Dodge as quickly as they came. But they'd never occupy Italy, Germany, or France.

Devils Advocate arguments are fun.

[piroska]

[Mangalore]

...
Italy would have fallen more easily to the Mongols thanks to drier weather and more open plains to graze horses on. Venice would probably remain independent, and Mongol forces would probably be forced to rely on Venetian hospitality in the Italian campaign.
...

Italy has open plains? It has the Po valley with big freaking rivers through it. Everything else is rugged terrain from hills to mountain cliffs which is not that great for large scale grazing, but great for defending.

[The Fishman]

Italy has open plains? It has the Po valley with big freaking rivers through it. Everything else is rugged terrain from hills to mountain cliffs which is not that great for large scale grazing, but great for defending.

By open plains I meant the Po valley. Big rivers didn't stop Mongols before.

[conon394]

Italy would have fallen more easily to the Mongols thanks to drier weather and more open plains to graze horses on

Umm no - sorry there is simply not of pasture in Italy for the Mogul horse and sheep... In general the same goes for most Western Europe. Horses are not cattle you just cannot - even with steppe ponies jerk their diet around like a yo-yo and have them stay healthy. Why do you think the Mongols never made any headway against the Mamlukes - logistics they simply could sustain a lot ponies for more and month or so before having to leave.

By open plains I meant the Po valley

Problem is the po valley is not steppe grassland.

[Claudius Gothicus]

Italy would have fallen more easily to the Mongols thanks to drier weather and more open plains to graze horses on. Venice would probably remain independent, and Mongol forces would probably be forced to rely on Venetian hospitality in the Italian campaign.

Mongol HA against Heavy Pavise formations on hills and rivers passes?

Total obliteration of mongols

[Henry X]

Italy was a collection of city-states that would have just as quickly sold each other out for their own benefit.

And the Mongols would be coming down the boot, which is supposedly much easier than going up it.

However, I would like to point out that the Mongols were some of the greatest strategic geniuses the world has ever seen, fighting battles in the same campaign hundreds of miles apart, against different armies, and at the same time.

An interesting point to to note is that, the Mongols would sack one city, scaring its neighbors into surrendering. Look at Kwarazhem for instance.

[piroska]

[Dan the Man]

An army can only get so far before losing strength. I can't see them pushing that far into Europe, no matter how successful they were at first. By the time they finally regrouped an effective tactic to defeat them probably would've been developed anyway.

[Sulfurion Blackfyre]

Seems everyone forgot about the Iberian Peninsula. Iberians were kind of used to fight against ranged cavalry armies (the moors), not to mention being the last refuge of Europe where I bet a lot of people from the rest of Europe would gather. Problem is, it has lots of open places. The Mongols would have a hard time there. Heh, I wonder what it would be like Mongols against the Portuguese, the last "free" guys in Europe.

[Odovacar]

We can talk about that when the mongols captured the castle of Buda, Győr, and some dozen stone castles Hungary had. These castles guard the Danube river.

Unless these are conquered their supply lines are in constant danger.
By hungering the defenders this could be accomplished till summer of 1242. The mongols crossed the Danube in early 1242, but there are hungarian forces yet in the south, probably in the north, and in West-Hungary.
Konrad IV, son of Freiedrich II gathered the imperial army, into which the prince of Bohemia, the prince of Austria, the german, silesian princes were heading as proven by their letters.

This army have little experience and idea about nomads, but can have plenty of info from escaped hungarians. Their strength lies in their fortifications and their sizeable heavy cavalry which Hungary lacked.
If they let themselves be lured into a trap, they can be defeated. If they fight the mongols not in an open plain, but near hills, forrests, or they can attack the mongols with concentrated charge of their knights, they"ll have the day. Another option they have is to lure mongols into Germany, let them to forage, and siege castles until weaken, due to unsuccessfull sieges and defeated raiding parties. And only then take the field against them. An experienced commander would choose this.

Croatia though would be rather impossible to capture, if it receives supply from the seas.
Another problem for mongols to supply their horses on Great Plains, and their army in a country they devestated already. There won't be any wheat for late summer of 1242, as peasent are dying by hunger, killed, enslaved, and hidden. Question is how much herd have the mongols for now they must slaughter them to survive.

By 1242 autumn the mongols had to either move further or dissolve their army. A move towards Austria or Germany makes them face more stone fortifications which they can't conquer, and an imperial army which could gather up to this time a number which rivals that of the mongols.

Another Muhi-style attack through a well-defended bridge in meele and they can return to Russia.

The mongol army could ravage more lands but eventually their distance from their core lands, their army organisation and their lack of siege skills made them unable to continue into the rich and more developed and heavily fortified west.