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Thread: What if Napoleon had won at Waterloo ?

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    Default What if Napoleon had won at Waterloo ?

    This question has kept me up for entire nights. Well, not really, but since this forum is full of history buffs, I'd like to hear some opinions on the topic. Do you think Napoleon could have remained Emperor ? Could he have re-conquered most of Europe ?

    I'm no expert on the topic but my belief is that France was pretty much spent by the time of Waterloo. Most of the old veterans were dead and the nation was exhausted, both physically and morally. At best, I think that he could have negotiated some kind of peace that let him remain at the head of the French state but there's no way that he could have mustered the resources to go on another pan-European rampage.

  2. #2
    Juvenal's Avatar love your noggin
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    Default Re: What if Napoleon had won at Waterloo ?

    Napoleon's conquering days were over. France would be unlikely to support wars of aggrandizement any more.

    As for his chances after a Waterloo victory, well... what he needed was to detach Austria from the coalition. A stunning military victory would be required for this; on a par with Ulm. It would all have had to happen very quickly, before the Russians and German States forces could intervene.

    I really don't see such a thing happening. The French no longer had the training and doctrinal superiority of 1805, nor the advantage in motivation that Nationalistic fervour provided. Napoleon would have to invade Austria with a force consisting of 50% worn and battered ex Armee du Nord, and 50% raw conscripts (who had been assembling near Paris under Davout).

    I know Napoleon had achieved some stunning victories in 1814, but they were small battles in friendly territory. Large battles diluted the 'Napoleon effect' leading to attritional affairs which favoured the Allies.
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    Prince of Essling's Avatar Napoleonic Enthusiast
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    Default Re: What if Napoleon had won at Waterloo ?

    Almost nil chance as apart from the remains of the Armee du Nord, Napoleon would have been able to call upon the Army of the Rhine (24,000), Corps of Observation of the Jura (15,000), Army of the Alps (25,000), Corps of Observation of the Var (10,000), Corps of Observation of the Pyrenees (30,000), Army of the West (15,000), reinforcements en route to armee du Nord (7,000) plus about 156,000 others in garrison, reserve, parks & depots. Against this the allies would have been able to use what remained of Wellington & Blucher's forces, plus Austro-Allied Army of the Rhine (250,000), Swiss Army (35,000), Austro-Piedmontese (62,000), Spanish Army of the Pyrenees (24,000), Russian Army (157,000), Austro-Italian Army of Naples (47,000), plus nearly 170,000 others. To have succeeded napoleon would have had to win a string of victories to force the Allies to the negotiating table - neither he nor his troops were what they once were!

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    Juvenal's Avatar love your noggin
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    Default Re: What if Napoleon had won at Waterloo ?

    The total numbers of men available do not determine the outcome in themselves. It would take time for them all to be brought to bear, and require that the various Allies all remained within the coalition during that time.

    To begin with, a decisive Waterloo victory leads to Wellington evacuating his army back to England, with the strong possibility that the government subsequently falls and England drops (temporarily) out of the coalition.

    Blucher would undoubtedly soon be back for another fight, but it would require time to reorganise a defeated Prussian army, and it was lacking in logistics. They could plunder their way across France without difficulty, but should they need to pass through allied territory (to come to the aid of Austria), feeding them might become a problem.

    Napoleon needed to concentrate very quickly against the Austrians and defeat them decisively before anything was concluded in other theatres. I expect he would be able to concentrate around 200,000 against them, using Davout's conscripts, but I can't see the Austrians presenting themselves to be defeated. They would let their minor German States allies do most of the fighting and try to delay things until the Russians turned up.
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    Prince of Essling's Avatar Napoleonic Enthusiast
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    Default Re: What if Napoleon had won at Waterloo ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Juvenal View Post
    The total numbers of men available do not determine the outcome in themselves. It would take time for them all to be brought to bear, and require that the various Allies all remained within the coalition during that time.

    To begin with, a decisive Waterloo victory leads to Wellington evacuating his army back to England, with the strong possibility that the government subsequently falls and England drops (temporarily) out of the coalition.

    Blucher would undoubtedly soon be back for another fight, but it would require time to reorganise a defeated Prussian army, and it was lacking in logistics. They could plunder their way across France without difficulty, but should they need to pass through allied territory (to come to the aid of Austria), feeding them might become a problem.

    Napoleon needed to concentrate very quickly against the Austrians and defeat them decisively before anything was concluded in other theatres. I expect he would be able to concentrate around 200,000 against them, using Davout's conscripts, but I can't see the Austrians presenting themselves to be defeated. They would let their minor German States allies do most of the fighting and try to delay things until the Russians turned up.
    While I agree numbers do not determine the outcome - defeat at Waterloo for Wellington doesn't necessarily mean retreat to ports & evacuation, it all depends on how Napoleon attacked scale of victory etc. For example I fought a number of Waterloo simulations playing the French, beginning with a major demonstration against the Anglo-Allied right by II Corps plus III Cavalry Corps undertaking a left hook of Hougomont as viewed from the French position (not attacking Hougomont other than skirmisher screen & with artillery fire) with I Corps attacking the ridge with IV Cavalry corps in support, using the Guard as the mass de manouerve to punch through the Allied position. Defeat for the Anglo-Allied army would have forced it away from the coast & towards Germany; Napoleon reinforced by Grouchy could have dealt with Blucher who would have fallen back to be reinforced by Hacke's German Corps.

    Napoleon's biggest enemy was the lack of time -
    on 19th June the Bavarian corps crossed the Rhine at Mannheim reaching Nancy on the 27th; the 3rd Corps crossed the Rhine at Germersheim & on the 28th forced Rapp's Army of the Rhine to retire into Strasbourg. The main portion of Schwarzenburg's Army (1st & 2nd Austrian & Reserve Corps) crossed the Rhine at Rheinfelden & Basle. The Russian advance guard crossed near Metz on the 29th June with the Russian main body crossing the Rhine at Mannheim on the 25th of June.
    Last edited by Prince of Essling; November 01, 2010 at 05:44 AM. Reason: spelling

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    Default Re: What if Napoleon had won at Waterloo ?

    Wellington's dispositions prior to the campaign were dictated by his need to cover his line of communications west to Ghent and hence to Ostende. Even when taking up his position at Waterloo, he still kept 17,000 men under Prince Frederick of the Netherlands nearby at Hal and Tubize to ensure he could retreat west if things went badly.

    A French left-hook around Braine would presumably lead first to the commitment of the large reserves kept near there (Chasse's Division. the brigades of Adam, Mitchell, Du Plat, H.Halket, the Brunswick Corps and three cavalry brigades). If things went badly, the Anglo-Allied Army would retire, covered by the force of Prince Frederick, and leave Blucher to cope as best he could.

    I don't think there was any prospect of a defeated Anglo-Allied Army retreating into Germany. Wellington was not making a last stand at Waterloo, he was only there at all because Blucher had promised to provide support.

    However I do agree that, tactically, an early attack west of Hougomont is a good idea, even though the French would be unable to use their cavalry superiority there due to the villages. But Napoleon was not actually expecting the outcome of the battle to be in doubt. He was more concerned with hitting Wellington as hard as possible to prevent him retreating out of range and compromising the campaign (which had to be concluded quickly). This is why he waited for the ground to dry and the grand battery to be assembled.
    Last edited by Juvenal; November 01, 2010 at 07:06 AM.
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    Default Re: What if Napoleon had won at Waterloo ?

    So, ok, Napoleon wins at Waterloo. Can he remain Emperor, albeit of a smaller French Empire, or do you think that the Allies would be satisfied with nothing less than his complete defeat and abdication ?

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    Prince of Essling's Avatar Napoleonic Enthusiast
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    Default Re: What if Napoleon had won at Waterloo ?

    Quote Originally Posted by gapper4 View Post
    So, ok, Napoleon wins at Waterloo. Can he remain Emperor, albeit of a smaller French Empire, or do you think that the Allies would be satisfied with nothing less than his complete defeat and abdication ?
    Complete defeat as the Allies cleverly declared war on Napoleon not the French nation!

  9. #9

    Default Re: What if Napoleon had won at Waterloo ?

    In the early days the French republic had "right" on its side. The middle and lower classes of other nations looked upon the French republic as an ideal. But the ideal was squandered in places and in particular Spain. The liberator had become the the new oppressor.
    Even if Napoleon had a successful campaign in 1815 it would be only a matter of time before bigger and better armies came to finish the job.
    Wellington and the Prussians were just a quick check on Napoleon. They might have only counted on slowing him down rather than beating him.

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    Prince of Darkness's Avatar Campidoctor
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    Default Re: What if Napoleon had won at Waterloo ?

    Quote Originally Posted by gapper4 View Post
    So, ok, Napoleon wins at Waterloo. Can he remain Emperor, albeit of a smaller French Empire, or do you think that the Allies would be satisfied with nothing less than his complete defeat and abdication ?
    Napoleon actually asked for peace when he returned from Elba.
    The Allies were determined to overthrow him for a second time, so peace was impossible.
    Here most of us agreed that Napoleon could have won Waterloo, but winning the campaign was damn impossible.
    The 1815 campaign was one of the most pointless war in history. It's only benefit was for the British to brag.
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    Juvenal's Avatar love your noggin
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    Default Re: What if Napoleon had won at Waterloo ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Prince of Darkness View Post
    The Allies were determined to overthrow him for a second time, so peace was impossible...
    Peace was not impossible because the Allies were, as always, all pursuing their own self-interest - often at each-other's expense.

    Austria felt very threatened by the Russo-Prussian alliance, and with good reason. Russia had recently occupied Poland and Galicia, while Prussia with Russian backing had just annexed Saxony. Austria had been relying on Britain to prevent this, but the British had backed out at the vital moment.

    So Austria was looking for an ally to counter-balance Russia and Prussia. This could only really be France. Even a France under Napoleon (suitably de-fanged by the new French constitution) might be acceptable under the right circumstances. After all, the French Empress was Austrian and the next French Emperor would therefore be a Habsburg!

    The problem was that Napoleon would have to beat the Austrians without hurting them too much, then pursue a policy of appeasement toward them. Not only did he lack the inclination for this, but would have needed someone like Tallyrand to conduct the negotiations.
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  12. #12

    Default Re: What if Napoleon had won at Waterloo ?

    Let us imagine that Napy decided to start at 9am rather than 11am, go for clearing the center at La Haye Sainte, and not even think about Hougomount, and finally feint on the right. I would think that victory at Waterloo meant that I Corps penetrates at Picton's postion to break the center. By 1PM the English forces must be routing rearward. Then victory is the Prussians seeing this debacle and remembering leaving a cake in the oven. They cannot show up, because even if the Prussian's show up in those conditions -- things are not pretty. (Using SSI Wellington's Victory as a system to settle matters). Napy has taken 50% losses. The best I have done playing Wellington's Victory using this plan is a Pyrrhic victory at best. (But a victory none the less in game turns)

    Ok we now have a broken Britsh army and the Prussians finding a defensive position. The problem now is a war of attrition Can the French reinforce before the Prussians gather forces for another round? Second, I cannot see Russia standing by while the French try to build back up for an invasion eastward. Then there is the thoughts posted above. Soon the people have had enough.

  13. #13

    Default Re: What if Napoleon had won at Waterloo ?

    While it would be possible as anything is possible, but I see it as being Highly unlikely. As stated before Napoleon's armies simply werent as big as in 1805-1812. And after years of war France's people would be very unhappy with the constant state of war.





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    Pro-opera Jungian's Avatar Tiro
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    Default Re: What if Napoleon had won at Waterloo ?

    Winning the campaign of 1815 was not impossible. As Napoleon himself once stated, "The word impossible is not in my dicitionary." Unfortunetly for Napoleon, he lost the battle of Waterloo before it even began.

    Firstly he had his 2nd rate generals in command. Napoleon kept his best generals in other theatres of operation to meet the other allied armies. The campaign in the Low Countries was based on the principle of a quick victory. If you are to have a quick victory, other fronts cannot matter, therefore keep your best generals with you. Napoleon delegated far too much responsibility to Ney and Grouchy, and D'Erlon and Reille were far from ideal. Imagine this as an alternate organization:
    I Corps (And left wing commander) Davout
    II Corps (And Right Wing Commander) Soult
    III Corps-Suchet
    IV Corps-Ney
    VI Corps-Gerard
    Cavalry-Grouchy
    Artillery-Drouet
    Guard-Lobou or Vandamme, take your pick.
    Chief of Staff-Rapp

    With such an army, the failure to crush either Wellington or Blucher on the 16th would never have taken place. The mistakes of D'Erlon's assault, Ney's cavalry charge, Reille's various blunders and Grouchy's slowness would most likely would not have occurred. Still, the question remains: Even if Napoleon had an 'Austerlitz' at Waterloo, could he win. Casualties withstanding, his army's strength would increse. Historically, even after Waterloo, Davout was amassing over 60,000 new troops or troops transferred from the coast. Napoleon would still have around 120,000-180,000 men, including the troops from the Army of the Rhine (where the next battle would most likely be fought.)

    Let us remember that in sitiuations like Dresden, Marengo, Austerlitz, Friedland and Wagram, the allies sued for peace because of the shock of one army or two being destroyed, even if they had others in the field. If a decisive enough victory was won, followed by a victory at even the lowest scale elsewhere, the allies may have sued for peace, reluctant in starting the whole Napoleonic wars all over again. One might picture a Europe with France at it's original borders led by Napoleon. As mentioned above, Napoleon by no means wanted to re-conquer Europe. This however all banks on a decisive victory at Waterloo, which, alas for the French, never took place.

  15. #15

    Default Re: What if Napoleon had won at Waterloo ?

    I don't see peace being made that easily in Napoleon's favor. Britain didn't surreneder after the failue of Operation Market Garden during WWII and Germany didn't surrender after the Battle of Stalingrad. Sure that was a different war, but I think the determination of the Coalition was much the same. They did not come this far just to have Napoleon walk back on to France, smack them around for a bit, and then surrender to him.

    No they were in it for long haul then. They were hellbent on ending Napoleon's imperial ambition once and for all. In all honesty I think Napoleon only really fought because he had no other options. Exile or one last desperate shot to rule France. Unsuprisingly the ridiculously huge army arrayed against him put an end to his ambitions.

  16. #16

    Default Re: What if Napoleon had won at Waterloo ?

    Do you remember to words of Napoleon Bonaparte? "I give them only one victory more & France follow me everywhere! "
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    Prince of Darkness's Avatar Campidoctor
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    Default Re: What if Napoleon had won at Waterloo ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Pro-opera Jungian View Post
    Winning the campaign of 1815 was not impossible. As Napoleon himself once stated, "The word impossible is not in my dicitionary." Unfortunetly for Napoleon, he lost the battle of Waterloo before it even began.

    Firstly he had his 2nd rate generals in command. Napoleon kept his best generals in other theatres of operation to meet the other allied armies. The campaign in the Low Countries was based on the principle of a quick victory. If you are to have a quick victory, other fronts cannot matter, therefore keep your best generals with you. Napoleon delegated far too much responsibility to Ney and Grouchy, and D'Erlon and Reille were far from ideal. Imagine this as an alternate organization:
    I Corps (And left wing commander) Davout
    II Corps (And Right Wing Commander) Soult
    III Corps-Suchet
    IV Corps-Ney
    VI Corps-Gerard
    Cavalry-Grouchy
    Artillery-Drouet
    Guard-Lobou or Vandamme, take your pick.
    Chief of Staff-Rapp

    With such an army, the failure to crush either Wellington or Blucher on the 16th would never have taken place. The mistakes of D'Erlon's assault, Ney's cavalry charge, Reille's various blunders and Grouchy's slowness would most likely would not have occurred. Still, the question remains: Even if Napoleon had an 'Austerlitz' at Waterloo, could he win. Casualties withstanding, his army's strength would increse. Historically, even after Waterloo, Davout was amassing over 60,000 new troops or troops transferred from the coast. Napoleon would still have around 120,000-180,000 men, including the troops from the Army of the Rhine (where the next battle would most likely be fought.)

    Let us remember that in sitiuations like Dresden, Marengo, Austerlitz, Friedland and Wagram, the allies sued for peace because of the shock of one army or two being destroyed, even if they had others in the field. If a decisive enough victory was won, followed by a victory at even the lowest scale elsewhere, the allies may have sued for peace, reluctant in starting the whole Napoleonic wars all over again. One might picture a Europe with France at it's original borders led by Napoleon. As mentioned above, Napoleon by no means wanted to re-conquer Europe. This however all banks on a decisive victory at Waterloo, which, alas for the French, never took place.
    But after the campaigns of 1813-14, the Allies restored their confidence and didn't buckle despite several defeats such as Lutzen and Dresden in 1813 and the Six Days Campaign in 1814.
    I doubt they will accept peace after several defeats. Napoleon was already past its best in 1815, and Ligny was practically a phyrric victory.
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  18. #18

    Default Re: What if Napoleon had won at Waterloo ?

    Napoleon only had one field army.

    Even if he had been on form on the day and had beaten the British before the Prussians arrived he would still have had to beat off Blucher either that evening or the next day.

    Had he achieved this he would have taken Brussels and forced the allies to retreat towards Antwerp (Brits) and Liege (Prussians) but his Armee du Nord would have been greatly weakened.

    And he still had half a million or so Austrians and Russians advancing from the East who he would have to face in the Autumn.

    So his only hope was that having beaten the allies in the Netherlands they would negotiate - but all they had to do was defend their bases and wait for the Austro-Russian hordes to pour over the Rhine into France.

    This would then have forced him to abandon Belgium and replay the 1814 campaign over again - but with an even worse imbalance in numbers to overcome.

    So it would have made little difference if he'd won at Waterloo - several hundred thousand more young men might have died but Napoleon would still have lost the war.

  19. #19
    Rotaugen2009's Avatar Vicarius
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    Default Re: What if Napoleon had won at Waterloo ?

    If the manpower and production are even roughly equal, then anything is possible. But, there comes a tipping point at which attrition cannot be overcome. The South faced the same thing in the American Civil War. If the enemy forces can keep fielding larger armies, they can lose battle after battle and still grind you down to where your losses are not replacable.
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  20. #20
    ChivalrousKiller's Avatar Domesticus
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    Default Re: What if Napoleon had won at Waterloo ?

    Dammit, there are so many interesting "what if"-s in history

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