The event spam from Southern Belle , Copperhead, etc happening basically once a month keeps me from keeping con/mil low. I've enacted all of the events at strategically intelligent moments, and the latest I've gotten the war to trigger is 1850. After winning the Mexican-American war early (researching romanticism first and acquiring the territory from the war to protect Texas) I focus all of my resources on developing the south, and still the only way to even have a chance at winning the war is to disband ALL yankee troops right before the war starts, disband all of the navies, and the US still usually wins. I've doubled the - con bonuses of the events and even that only allows me to push the war back a few months.