What if the July 20 Plot succeeded?

[cfmonkey45]

Here's the set-up. Hitler and his military commanders are at a secluded retreat code-named the Wolf's Lair. In their midst is a man, Colonel Claus von Stauffenberg, with a mission: kill Hitler at all costs. With him is a briefcase with a high-explosive charge in it, ready to detonate in mere minutes. In our timeline, the briefcase was knocked over and then replaced behind a thick oak legging that shielded the tyrannical Fuhrer from what would be certain death. However, what if this had not happened? The bomb goes off mere inches from the Nazi Leader with the shockwave crippling and crushing his body. Instantly, most of the high command are also killed. Operation Valkyrie goes into full effect. What would happen with the coup? Would it succeed? More importantly, how would the Allies respond? Would the Soviet Union simply back down? Would the Western Powers forcibly remove the government, conspirators and all, and divide Germany up again? Or would they ally with the Wehrmacht against the approaching Red Bear?

[tommyboy]

hmm interresting question...
but i think the soviets would stil go for berlin...
about the allies?well they might take the peace offering if germany retreats from all foreing territories

[A Demented Goldfish]

the soviet union would be alot bigger, they would take germany, austria and even parts of the balkans

[Border Patrol]

eisenhower woulda geared up the remaining wehrmacht to march on berlin, and led a truly western invasion of the soviet union.

oh and nukes. in russia. on russians. fun stuff.

[conon394]

Would it succeed? More importantly, how would the Allies respond? Would the Soviet Union simply back down? Would the Western Powers forcibly remove the government, conspirators and all, and divide Germany up again? Or would they ally with the Wehrmacht against the approaching Red Bear?

Well the war was lost and Stalin certainly wasn’t going to give a damn about who was running the show…

If the coup succeeded and the military cleaned house, repudiated Hitler’s polices, closed the camps, freed the Jews (poles, Russians, and sundry other undesirables, sub humans and political prisoners and slaves), handed over the Nazi leadership/SS en mass to the western allies and indicated they were going to fight to the bitter end against Stalin while only defending in the West – than just maybe, maybe Germany might have cracked the western alliance. In any case one assumes rational military leadership would correctly choose defense only in the west and throw all Germany’s last reserves into the east – thus I think its likely the US/UK –USSR occupation line would be significantly more east of where it was. If the western allies got to Poland and the US/UK backed Polish government got set up on polish territory – one might again see a break between the western allies and the USSR.

[Poach]

conon gives a decent idea.

The new government would have to turn the SS over en masse to the Western Allies and agree to release all the nations they've conquered. This would obviously lead the US and UK to want to set up the Polish government and other occupied governments to allow them to run their country again.

The USSR would be unwilling to allow this, but the armies of the Allies would be able to reach Poland before the Red Army as there would be no Wermacht to stop them. The USSR would then either back down or fight the Allies as well as the Wermacht, and I doubt they'd be able to defeat the combined might of the American, German and British armed forces.

[conon394]

The USSR would be unwilling to allow this, but the armies of the Allies would be able to reach Poland before the Red Army as there would be no Wermacht to stop them. The USSR would then either back down or fight the Allies as well as the Wermacht, and I doubt they'd be able to defeat the combined might of the American, German and British armed forces.

Even given all the online ink recently spilled over the 'Ardennes offensive thread' I think your fundamentally correct. The only think that would really split the Allied alliance and letting the occupation chips fall as they might was a complete military house cleaning (of Nazis and all their polices) and biased surrender to he US/UK (honestly if the Germans just stopped fighting on one front but not the other ...). In addition the men in charge would likely have had to have real credibility with the west to boot - that means even people like Speer would would be up for jail time - maybe somebody like Rommel could have pulled it off he had the kind of PR needed in the west good honorable general, no real east front time, etc; as the face face of the military he just might have been able to pull it off.

[Poach]

Yes, a lot of the German government and upper class would have to face some sort of trial, but a mass handing over of the SS and agreeing to withdraw from all conquered nations off the bat would likely be enough to atleast get a truce with the Western Allies, which would allow all available resources to transfer to the East whilst diplomatic action would take place with the West.

Stalin would be unlikely to agree to a ceasefire, even if the Germans agreed to withdraw from the Soviet Union. That would cause the Allies (already suspicious of the USSR) to deploy their armies in Eastern Europe to protect those nations from Soviet post-war dominance.

You do make a good point though: the Nuremburg trials would probably have gone ahead in some form or another, though the Germans themselves may have been able to get more of a say in the matter.

[Hakkapeliitta]

Germany would surrender perhaps earlier and it would be divided much like it was in reality. The Allies had agreed to accept no less than unconditional surrender from Germany, and Roosevelt would have never sold Stalin out. Some new alliance or a separate peace between the Western Allies and Germany against the Soviets is just a fantasy.

[SorelusImperion]

While the idea of a military government agreeing to relase the conquered nations and fight only in the east seems to be a way of getting a seperate peace with the western allies at first sight we should remember that those commited to the coup did so with the clear strategic goal of keeping the pre war conquests (Austria and Czech territory) as well as restoring the 1914 border with Poland. Given the situation in 1914 this was illusionary and while such a plan might have worked out after the fall of France and before the entry of the USA the chance for it to gain the acceptance of the western allies after their successfull landing in France was almost non-existant.