Yes, Japan certainly needed to get its priorities straightened out. China was useless to them, they could deal with China whenever they wished. Continuing to pour money and men into that bottomless pit did nothing to hurt the USSR, UK, or US and China could do nothing by itself, as you said. Japan's Non-Aggression with Russia was stupid as well. Japan could hardly successfully invade the Soviet Union, but it could raid its Pacific Coast and tie down significant numbers of Russian soldiers. And their piecemeal uncoordinated efforts across the whole Pacific stretched their resources, and the fact that the Army and Navy were not cooperating and actually undermining one another did not help things. I'd say of all the powers, Japan bungled everything the most. It had a splendid opportunity before it, and it lost it through its own incompetence. It imagined it could simply hold out against the US and UK, when it should have been assisting Germany in actually destroying the UK. The US could defeat them in the Pacific still perhaps, but it would be incredibly costly to wrench the Japanese out of India, Burma, Australia, China, the Far East of Russia, Korea and who knows, perhaps the Middle-East and Madagascar as well. And with Germany triumphant in the West, I don't see that as happening.