The Future Of Russia -The Schizophrenic Nation

[Cicero2]

Whats the future of this nation. What role will it play in 20, 50, even 100 years? It seems to me if there was a nation thats unpredictable it would be this one. Will it become a democracy? I know there's no certian way of knowing but if you could gather up the facts of today and give us your hypothesis (educated guess) on it, what would it be? I want your expert opinion.

[MaximiIian]

Eh. Hopefully Putin will convince the parliament to grant him the title of "Tsar and Emperor of all the Russias", then he'll centralize authority, fix the economy, rope in all the runaway states, stamp down on the Chechens, and begin the road that will put russia back in it's place as a major world power.
Of course, if he doesn't do that, the economy might crash, the population will halve, and the chechens will run rampant.

[SovietInsurgent]

Competent leadership with broad public support is the most important ingredient of a powerful empire. Before 1917 Russia was a third rate European power, the intelligent economic policies and single minded political leadership drove Russia to overtake all the European nations and compete with American power and resouces on an equal footing. The old Soviet leaders failed to create a new generation of competent leadership and now Russia has returned to its natural state of third rate European power.

Putin is a typical strong man like Sadaam Hussein or Kim Jong Il, he has all the power but no vision or philosophy. The Chechen war is merely the continuation of the political collapse which led to the loss of all the other satellite states. You cannot blame the Chechens for not wanting to be ruled by a government that no longer represents them. The old Soviet government was representative of many ethnicities, most notably Stalin who was Georgian and Khruschev who was Ukrainian. Today Russians once again dominate a land with dozens of languages and ethnicities so constant civil strife and secession of outer republics is inevitable.

If a great leader was to arise in Russia today most of the old Soviet bloc could be rebuilt in a weekend. Western right-wingers manged to smash apart the weakened Soviet Union but they did nothing to help the people afterward and were happy to let them suffer through war, poverty and political unrest. After living in a wastland for a few decades most people in the former USSR are not as easily swayed by empty American promises of democracy and capitalism.

Russia's future depends on the character of the people who will lead it in the decades to come. But in all likelyhood Russia will continue to spiral into the gutter because it lacks the proper education system to raise any kind of leaders other than violent strongmen.

[Dromikaites]

Russia has enormous natural ressources, a large population (and not all the minorities want to break away) and a large pool of highly educated and talented individuals. The main problem Russia has is the mindset of the politicians which is to a certain degree also prevalent in the rest of the society. The politicians there seem unable to focus on developing the country in order to better the life of its citizens. They keep thinking the country needs to be developed in order to become an empire once again. The people of Russia are seen as just one of the instruments to achieve this domination goal, not as the rightful beneficiaries of Russia's development.

Russian leaders seem to follow the tradition according to which their people are expendable. So there's no real problem to keep them in poverty, to send them fight insense wars like that in Chechenya or to gas everybody in a theater in order to make sure the terrorists don't escape. I believe this still works because somehow the Russian ordinary people are not aware of their own worth. But today a lot of Russians emmigrate and in their adoptive countries they learn they are valuable human beigns, that they deserve to be treated with respect by the state's authorities and that the politicians are held acountable. Some of the Russians would one day return home with those "subversive" ideas and others spread those ideas to their relatives and friends left at home. So maybe at some point in time Russia would change.

[RusskiSoldat]

I can honestly say that unless Putin breaks free of the western grip imposeed on our country by Europe and America we will continue to devolve further and further. This si not the first time the west has made attempts to contorl Russia and render it completely worthless in order for it to not be serious competition to them, and while the people here in Moscow realise this, our governmnet is intent on letting the west turn us weaker and weaker.
This time calls for a great leader who will lead us to retake what was lost, and end this failed experiment called democracy in Russia once and for all. I mean the government seriously though about restoring a constitutional monarchy!
That and returning royalty and other useless crap we rid ourrselves of decades ago, and AFAIK we do not ahve the death penalty anymore.
Unless things will change for the better in the very near future we will once again be in teh same situation we were in 1913, but for an indefinite amount of time.

[Maximus I]

but why schizophrenic?

[Epirote]

One thing is for sure.
Caucasus is going to get Worse.
Now the violence is spreading more to Dagestan, Ossetia, Inguishetia, Kabardino Balkaria, Cherkassia against Russian authorities.
New insurgent groups non-Chechen have been formed and in the long term they will roam the region unchecked since even now Russian army can`t cope with them.

[Maximus I]

One thing is for sure.
Caucasus is going to get Worse.
Now the violence is spreading more to Dagestan, Ossetia, Inguishetia, Kabardino Balkaria, Cherkassia against Russian authorities.
New insurgent groups non-Chechen have been formed and in the long term they will roam the region unchecked since even now Russian army can`t cope with them.

well actually not bevause after the bislan school event people sworn that they will fight against chechnia in northern ossetia.

[Dromikaites]

I can honestly say that unless Putin breaks free of the western grip imposeed on our country by Europe and America we will continue to devolve further and further. This si not the first time the west has made attempts to contorl Russia and render it completely worthless in order for it to not be serious competition to them, and while the people here in Moscow realise this, our governmnet is intent on letting the west turn us weaker and weaker.

That's precisely what I was refering to when talking about the prevalent way of thinking among the politicians and parts of the population.

RusskiSoldat, nobody is interesting in a poor Russia (or in a poor Africa or South America) because poor people don't buy things. The widespread belief that developed nations want to keep the others undeveloped for having them as consumer markets is contradicted by the world trade statistics: rich countries do most of their business with...other rich countries. The reason is simple: poor countries cannot afford to buy much.

What US and, to some extent also the EU is indeed interested in seeing is Russia stopping to interfere in the former USSR republics. The reason is simple: Russia is at this moment unable to make those countries rich and therefore buyers of Western products in big quantities. While this might look like a 19th centuries colonial war, the diference is Russia is not benefiting anything really from its "colonies". It just makes those people's lives more miserable (see the Uzbekistan episode). What Russia constantly failed to understand from Peter the Great onwards is that in order to benefit form a colonial empire you first need to have an efective and efficient government at home. If not, you end up like the Spanish, Ottoman, Tsarist or Soviet empires.

This time calls for a great leader who will lead us to retake what was lost, and end this failed experiment called democracy in Russia once and for all.

Did you ever ask yourself this question: "If the Russian imperialism was so great, how come it failed in all its forms (Tsarist and Soviet)?" Don't blame the enemies - every empire has enemies (for instance USA had the Soviet Union ).

I think abandoning democracy and trying to rebuild an empire is exactly what Russia shouldn't do. Have you ever thought how would it be to have Russia as a part of EU? That would be a real solution for Russia's problems instead of having the EU as a part of Russia.

[Epirote]

well actually not bevause after the bislan school event people sworn that they will fight against chechnia in northern ossetia.

The Ossetian had always problems with Chechens and especialy with Ingushi with whom the gave a small scale war in 1992 about disputed region after the break of USSR.

I didn`t said the Ossetian will fight with the Chechens.
I said that Violence is spreading in the region that includes also Ossetia.
North Ossetians will respond with violence and that is what militants want, so that a new front will open.
That can only be bad for the Russian and inflame Caucasus.

[Maximus I]

That's precisely what I was refering to when talking about the prevalent way of thinking among the politicians and parts of the population.

RusskiSoldat, nobody is interesting in a poor Russia (or in a poor Africa or South America) because poor people don't buy things. The widespread belief that developed nations want to keep the others undeveloped for having them as consumer markets is contradicted by the world trade statistics: rich countries do most of their business with...other rich countries. The reason is simple: poor countries cannot afford to buy much.

What US and, to some extent also the EU is indeed interested in seeing is Russia stopping to interfere in the former USSR republics. The reason is simple: Russia is at this moment unable to make those countries rich and therefore buyers of Western products in big quantities. While this might look like a 19th centuries colonial war, the diference is Russia is not benefiting anything really from its "colonies". It just makes those people's lives more miserable (see the Uzbekistan episode). What Russia constantly failed to understand from Peter the Great onwards is that in order to benefit form a colonial empire you first need to have an efective and efficient government at home. If not, you end up like the Spanish, Ottoman, Tsarist or Soviet empires.

Did you ever ask yourself this question: "If the Russian imperialism was so great, how come it failed in all its forms (Tsarist and Soviet)?" Don't blame the enemies - every empire has enemies (for instance USA had the Soviet Union ).

I think abandoning democracy and trying to rebuild an empire is exactly what Russia shouldn't do. Have you ever thought how would it be to have Russia as a part of EU? That would be a real solution for Russia's problems instead of having the EU as a part of Russia.

Yes but you refering to russia as poor,because they don't buy much consumer's goods.But russia is one of the leading countries that export alot of natural resources such as gaz,diamond,wood,etc.So that's why i believe alot of country are still doing business with russia.As it's not always about consumers good.

Also russia will never be democratic ,as for centuries now of it's existance it was always like this,A very strong goverment and a very poor and beaten people (by beaten-i mean intimidated by own goverment).So unless russia fundamentaly changes it's constitution and abolish things like "propiska" (if you live somewhere you have to register there-if you don't have the registration you are not allowed to live in that city,it was maynly created to keep the peasants from migrating to the big cities of russia, also you can't have a passport without "propiska")Hope you see the inhumaine way of this system.So in my analisys russia won't improve itself for decades to come, or maybe even centuries.

Also EU is creating alot of problems for their member countries (alot of people express their will to leave EU)So i don't think russia should join the EU (as putin is creating one of it's own in asia)

[Dromikaites]

Yes but you refering to russia as poor,because they don't buy much consumer's goods.But russia is one of the leading countries that export alot of natural resources such as gaz,diamond,wood,etc.So that's why i believe alot of country are still doing business with russia.As it's not always about consumers good.

Russia as a country is rich in resources. Russian people at large are not. There are some incredibly rich people, a little bit of middle class and a large number of poor people. Unfortunately if things continue this way, the structure of the Russian society would look very much like in South America.

Buying oil, gas and minerals from Russia can be done whoever is in power there: a dictator, a president, a Tsar or Emperor Palpatine, Grand Master of Sith. Selling to Russia requires a prosperous population there.

Also russia will never be democratic ,as for centuries now of it's existance it was always like this,A very strong goverment and a very poor and beaten people (by beaten-i mean intimidated by own goverment).

For centuries the Germans were living in forests...History is a thing of the past. People can build the future no matter how good or bad was their past.

So unless russia fundamentaly changes it's constitution and abolish things like "propiska" (if you live somewhere you have to register there-if you don't have the registration you are not allowed to live in that city,it was maynly created to keep the peasants from migrating to the big cities of russia, also you can't have a passport without "propiska")Hope you see the inhumaine way of this system.So in my analisys russia won't improve itself for decades to come, or maybe even centuries.

The Russian citizens are simply not used to consider themselves valuable human beings and to seeing the government as something that should serve them and not the other way round. But a lot of Russians live now abroad and their horizon widens.

Also EU is creating alot of problems for their member countries (alot of people express their will to leave EU)So i don't think russia should join the EU (as putin is creating one of it's own in asia)

He, he, nobody seriously thinks of dumping the EU. Even the French who rejected the constitution are in no rush to get out of EU. The people who are not currently happy with how EU works can make their voice heard and listened to. Whatever empire Putin is trying to build in Central Asia it won't be better than Russia. And we both seem to agree Russia is not good at all at the moment. The majority of the Russian population would probably be way better off in EU (he, he, some already are ). I can see the progress made by my own country, Romania, as the politicians were forced to adapt the laws and the systems to the EU regulations. Those might not be perfect but are much better that was in Romania before or in Russia as we speak.

[Maximus I]

Russia as a country is rich in resources. Russian people at large are not. There are some incredibly rich people, a little bit of middle class and a large number of poor people. Unfortunately if things continue this way, the structure of the Russian society would look very much like in South America.

Buying oil, gas and minerals from Russia can be done whoever is in power there: a dictator, a president, a Tsar or Emperor Palpatine, Grand Master of Sith. Selling to Russia requires a prosperous population there.
For centuries the Germans were living in forests...History is a thing of the past. People can build the future no matter how good or bad was their past.
The Russian citizens are simply not used to consider themselves valuable human beings and to seeing the government as something that should serve them and not the other way round. But a lot of Russians live now abroad and their horizon widens.
He, he, nobody seriously thinks of dumping the EU. Even the French who rejected the constitution are in no rush to get out of EU. The people who are not currently happy with how EU works can make their voice heard and listened to. Whatever empire Putin is trying to build in Central Asia it won't be better than Russia. And we both seem to agree Russia is not good at all at the moment. The majority of the Russian population would probably be way better off in EU (he, he, some already are ). I can see the progress made by my own country, Romania, as the politicians were forced to adapt the laws and the systems to the EU regulations. Those might not be perfect but are much better that was in Romania before or in Russia as we speak.

Well mate i don't know how things are in romania, but i lived in bucarest for 2 years from 2000 till 2002 and the way that the politicians kissed the EU commision ass sicked me(don't get me wrong i'm not insulting romania-just the politicians, also you are able to do that because you are a small country,which is fairly easy to regulate.Believe me russia will never do that as it's always been an independant empire.)

Also i never saw a progress in villages in romania.On ProTV channel (does it still exist :laughing: ) they were showing extreme poverty of romanian peasants,but well i won't judge your goverment, we'll see where it will lead in the future

[Dromikaites]

Well mate i don't know how things are in romania, but i lived in bucarest for 2 years from 2000 till 2002 and the way that the politicians kissed the EU commision ass sicked me(don't get me wrong i'm not insulting romania-just the politicians, also you are able to do that because you are a small country,which is fairly easy to regulate.Believe me russia will never do that as it's always been an independant empire.)

Also i never saw a progress in villages in romania.On ProTV channel (does it still exist :laughing: ) they were showing extreme poverty of romanian peasants,but well i won't judge your goverment, we'll see where it will lead in the future

Yes, you're right, they're kissing the butt of the EU comission. And most of the population considers it to be a good thing since the laws improved a lot and the standard of living is increasing. And you're also right that the peasants are still very poor but the ass-kissing on one hand and the reduction of bureaucracy and corruption on the other hand made more funds available for developing the vilages.

If Russian politicians keep thinking in terms of empires it's the Russian population who would foot the bill. As always...

[Maximus I]

Yes, you're right, they're kissing the butt of the EU comission. And most of the population considers it to be a good thing since the laws improved a lot and the standard of living is increasing. And you're also right that the peasants are still very poor but the ass-kissing on one hand and the reduction of bureaucracy and corruption on the other hand made more funds available for developing the vilages.

If Russian politicians keep thinking in terms of empires it's the Russian population who would foot the bill. As always...

I pretty sure mate that russia will never kiss ass of EU, as no russian will ever aprrove it.

[RusskiSoldat]

Did you ever ask yourself this question: "If the Russian imperialism was so great, how come it failed in all its forms (Tsarist and Soviet)?" Don't blame the enemies - every empire has enemies (for instance USA had the Soviet Union ).

I think abandoning democracy and trying to rebuild an empire is exactly what Russia shouldn't do. Have you ever thought how would it be to have Russia as a part of EU? That would be a real solution for Russia's problems instead of having the EU as a part of Russia.

Tsarist empire failed for the same reason all monarchies fail: eventauly there's a completely worthless monarch on the throne.
The Soviet Empire fell because of Gorbachev's inability at holding it together and desire to compromise with the west.
And I shudder at teh though of Russia in the EU for one simple reason (there are of course many others but they interest me less): it would enslave us. We would be forced to obey the EU.

I pretty sure mate that russia will never kiss ass of EU, as no russian will ever aprrove it.

Glad to see there is a semblance of truth in this thread.
And Russia has always been doing the same thing: stagnating and then through mile long leaps in progress coming out on top.

[Dromikaites]

I pretty sure mate that russia will never kiss ass of EU, as no russian will ever aprrove it.

Have you ever considered that maybe, just maybe, EU is right on those topics? Can we be both more specific about what we think it's good or not?

I think it's good that the Romanian politicians accepted to pass anti-corruption laws even though it wasn't in their interest because they are now prosecuted precisely under those laws. I also think is good that the politicians accepted that taxpayers have the right to know how the money is spent by the authorities even though again, that wasn't in the best interest of the authorities. I also think is good that the politicians accepted that lots of milk factories and meat processing plants should be closed down because it makes food poisoning less frequent. It is also good to privatize the profitable state-owned companies so the politicians can't rob them blind anymore and to close down the unprofitable ones because it's cheaper to pay unemployment compensations than to have those companies running. Oh yes, our skillfull politicians knew how to make money even when the state-owned companies were in the red: their private companies would rent the equipment and bulidings for peanuts form the state-own company and use that equipment and buildings to make real money.

Yes, I agree with you that it is disgusting to see how those politicians worked against their best interests but do you know why they did it? Because as long as they are in office they can still hope to milk the state budget one way or another. But if the population votes them out because they put Romania's ascension to EU in danger, then they lose access to the cash cow and their political enemies can exact revenge (which, by the way, is currently happening ). So here it's the population who has learned how to force the politicians to steal less and do something good for the country even though for them (the politicians) this would mean personal humiliation.

Now tell me me please what are the humiliations of the Russian politicians that the Russian people won't ever accept.

[Tiwaz]

One detail. It is sometimes useful to keep nations with great deal of raw materials extremely poor. Even if they do not buy much from you you can buy insane amounts of resources for dirt cheap prices! And then you can cut your price and outcompete your opposition in rich markets since you still make same profit with lower price (due to lower resource costs).

So it is not entirely true that wealthy and resourcerich nations would be in the interests of currently rich nations. It would cause these rich nations problems in getting their cheap resources to keep their economical engines rolling.

[Maximus I]

Have you ever considered that maybe, just maybe, EU is right on those topics? Can we be both more specific about what we think it's good or not?

I think it's good that the Romanian politicians accepted to pass anti-corruption laws even though it wasn't in their interest because they are now prosecuted precisely under those laws. I also think is good that the politicians accepted that taxpayers have the right to know how the money is spent by the authorities even though again, that wasn't in the best interest of the authorities. I also think is good that the politicians accepted that lots of milk factories and meat processing plants should be closed down because it makes food poisoning less frequent. It is also good to privatize the profitable state-owned companies so the politicians can't rob them blind anymore and to close down the unprofitable ones because it's cheaper to pay unemployment compensations than to have those companies running. Oh yes, our skillfull politicians knew how to make money even when the state-owned companies were in the red: their private companies would rent the equipment and bulidings for peanuts form the state-own company and use that equipment and buildings to make real money.

Yes, I agree with you that it is disgusting to see how those politicians worked against their best interests but do you know why they did it? Because as long as they are in office they can still hope to milk the state budget one way or another. But if the population votes them out because they put Romania's ascension to EU in danger, then they lose access to the cash cow and their political enemies can exact revenge (which, by the way, is currently happening ). So here it's the population who has learned how to force the politicians to steal less and do something good for the country even though for them (the politicians) this would mean personal humiliation.

Now tell me me please what are the humiliations of the Russian politicians that the Russian people won't ever accept.

Maynly the ass-kissing thing.But also romanian economy is not as strong as russian one.The resources that russia posseses are enourmous and after yeltsin done his "democratic" privatisation alot of bussinessmen have BIG fortunes on it, and now they have enourmous influence on a country itself.So i don't think even if russian people will allow EU rules to be passed, they simply will influence it (as they have the power,believe me).So as you can see the situation in romania is alot different that the one in russia.For instance you talked about plants that are not working, ok, in romania i bet their is less plants than in russia (do you agree with that?) so if russia will start closing them the whole economy will collapse and the things will be the same again as few years back then (empty shells, endless, lines for toilet papers, etc.-well you get my point) But now the economical situation seems to be stable-not good but stable).Now people can actually afford food, and the food is atleast available.So i think it's a bad thing that russia joins the EU, as it is capable to build it's own economy (they just have to adopt the regulations of USA as the major factor that USA is as strong as it's now it's because it has a relatively wealthy middle class, while in russia as you said there are practically none).So the best thing to do for russia is not to join EU (as i believe it will collapse soon) but to adopt a humaine regulations and constitution.

And even,despite all odds, russia joins EU,believe me the EU will have a hard time sorting russian affairs.(so as someone said"russia is a land of paradox")We are used to it :sweatingb

[Dromikaites]

Maynly the ass-kissing thing.But also romanian economy is not as strong as russian one.The resources that russia posseses are enourmous and after yeltsin done his "democratic" privatisation alot of bussinessmen have BIG fortunes on it, and now they have enourmous influence on a country itself.So i don't think even if russian people will allow EU rules to be passed, they simply will influence it (as they have the power,believe me).So as you can see the situation in romania is alot different that the one in russia.For instance you talked about plants that are not working, ok, in romania i bet their is less plants than in russia (do you agree with that?) so if russia will start closing them the whole economy will collapse and the things will be the same again as few years back then (empty shells, endless, lines for toilet papers, etc.-well you get my point) But now the economical situation seems to be stable-not good but stable).Now people can actually afford food, and the food is atleast available.So i think it's a bad thing that russia joins the EU, as it is capable to build it's own economy (they just have to adopt the regulations of USA as the major factor that USA is as strong as it's now it's because it has a relatively wealthy middle class, while in russia as you said there are practically none).So the best thing to do for russia is not to join EU (as i believe it will collapse soon) but to adopt a humaine regulations and constitution.

You are right that Russia has the potential to make it's people happy. It has lots of resources and quite a lot of educated people (inspite of the massive brain drain, I think Russia would never be short of talent). But it's not in the best interest of the politicians and influential "biznismieny" to adopt the US regulations. It's the same as adopting the EU regulations: those guys would lose some of their power and become accountable. So in theory it's up to the people to force the politicians into democratising the country. But in practice you see that's not happening because probably not enough Russians imagine they can really make themselves heard.

And this is not because of some problem with the Russian mentality or history. The Ukraineans, who share much of Russia's history, proved they can kick the butt of the politicians who don't deliver. If Yuschenko delivers, great! If he also won't deliver, he'll be kicked out of power. Once the people learn they can really replace the leadership of the country, the leaders start to listen.