EU trade with china

[LegionX]

What happens if the eu grants china weapons trade. I think that will shatter the already fragile us,eu relations and the two side will start to look at each other as enemies instead of allies with would be a terrible blow to the western civilizations

Heres what I think will happen

-US trade embargo\boycott against the EU nations except Great briton
-disbanding of NATO
-US pulls peace troops out of Europe
-US seeks alliances with the eastern world
-both economies suffer badly

it looks a little extream but with the admistrations of the europeans and the us its realistic in the end its a badd thing

[MoROmeTe]

Nothing that serious. Probably the US will make some commerce related moves against the Eu and China. But, let's not forget, the US has a major debt in foreign trade towards China. And the EU has beem quite profficient at fighting commercial battles with the US...

[Simetrical]

Always keep in mind, the U.S. and EU are each the other's greatest trading parter. An embargo would cripple both, and nobody could tolerate that on either side. EU weapons trade with China would hurt already strained U.S.-EU political relationships, but embargos are just out of the question. The reaction would probably be to try strengthening ties with more ideologically friendly entities, like Taiwan, Poland, and Britain, at the expense of less friendly ones, like France and Germany. Overt support by one side for a party that the other overtly opposes would cause further global polarization, with the two powers trying to line up more neutral countries on their "side". I think U.S.-Taiwan relationships would especially improve if the EU did this.

But all in all, the EU and the U.S. are rivals, not enemies, and it's hard to imagine anything that either one might do to change that—remember, China isn't exactly our enemy either right now, they're just on a list of countries we want to keep in check. When it comes down to it, they know that trying to pick a fight with us would be completely self-destructive, and they aren't going to be attacking us or our close allies anytime soon, so their gaining weapons just isn't worth an embargo by us, not by a long shot. Only an outright embargo or invasion of a party with strong ties to one side by the other could cause ramifications such as you're suggesting, and everyone will realize that, so no one will do it.

We'll happily invade countries such as Afghanistan and Iraq, and the EU doesn't care enough to cripple their own economy; Europe will happily provide arms and other aid to countries such as China, and the U.S. doesn't care enough to cripple their own economy. There have been and will be diplomatic objections, but no real ramifications.

-Simetrical

[Gubbins]

Doom doom doom! What a load of crap. The EU hasn't even decided whether to do it yet, and you would have a more accurate view of the world if you did not see the EU as America's vassal.

[MoROmeTe]

I don't think anyone here sees America as the master and the EU as the vassal...

[Custor]

I don't think anyone here sees America as the master and the EU as the vassal...

I'll think that the first time my PM actually does something that's good for my country and not good for the US. Until then it's still poodle time.

[Elu Barcino]

I really don't think that any of those things would happen. The US needs the EU largely on it's side, it's not going to ruin BOTH economies to stop China getting weapons. Also, I think that there is a reasonable possibility that the EU will not lift the embargo, until China improves it's human rights record, at least. Finally, you mention the US seeking alliances in the eastern world, who, precisely, beyond Japan, South Korea (who both have good relations with Europe) and Taiwan?

[Caelius]

India, Vietnam, Australia, etc. There's plenty, and most of the examples I gave are countires the US already has very good relations with.

[fallingstar]

India, Vietnam, Australia, etc. There's plenty, and most of the examples I gave are countires the US already has very good relations with.

I thought vietnam weren't a friend of US except Australia

[Kanaric]

I thought vietnam weren't a friend of US except Australia

Vietnam IS friendly.... they want american corporations and they want americans to move there.

Also a lot of old people used to move to countries like Costa Rica, including my uncle, now that the country is starting to become "expensive" many are actually moving there.

[Kagetora]

I can see an eventual conflict between China and the US as they support Kim Jong Il (leader of North Korea) and he is a world threat. He has very deadly weapons and little money, I don't think he'd mind selling them for cash.

The Chinese want to control the east econmically and maybe a little more, the E.U. (or should I say France) wants to control Europe and be more powerful than the US. Your saying that we Americans shouldn't worry.

[Elu Barcino]

So, what you're saying, Kagetora, is that you find it strange that the EUROPEAN Union wants to control Europe? Of course it does, that's the whole point. And yes, the Americans shouldn't worry, I think that the EU would probably choose to improve it's existing relations with the US, as opposed to China.

[Dromikaites]

Lifting EU's 15 years-old weapons trade embargo would be stupid when we come to think how the embargo came to be: it was prompted by the 1989 brutal repression of the demonstrations in the Tiananmen square. It is logical to keep it as long as China continues to be non-democratic.

On the other hand I think China doesn't really need EU's weapons. For China this is just a way to test its own influence in the international arena - can they bully the EU yet or not: "If the ban is maintained, bilateral relations will definitely be affected," Mr Zhang (Chinese Vice Foreign Minister) told reporters. "We think this is a kind of political discrimination."http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/4065091.stm

The French and the German governments are showing (again!) shortsightness by proposing to lift the ban. It is true their economies would greatly benefit from selling arms to China. And it is also true that both France's and Germany's economies are not doing great at this time, which might result in a degree of popular support for such a measure in those countries. But lifting the arms embargo (caused by China's blatant show of disrespect for democratic values) would simply show to everybody that EU is ready to trade its principles in exchange of a nice sum. Not exactly a good idea for somebody who intends to play a more important role on the international arena.

[Custor]

Your case would have more credence if we had any type of other trade embargo on China, didn't have full diplomatic relations with China and weren't happily sending Olympic teams to compete in a couple of years time.

It's a farce kept in place due to Taiwan. It has zero to do with democracy.

[Dromikaites]

Your case would have more credence if we had any type of other trade embargo on China, didn't have full diplomatic relations with China and weren't happily sending Olympic teams to compete in a couple of years time.

It's a farce kept in place due to Taiwan. It has zero to do with democracy.

From what I know the trade embargo was introduced because of Tienanmen square. Having full diplomatic relations has nothing to do with agreeing with a certain regime or not. US and Russia had full diplomatic relations since 1945...

[Silencio]

So ******* what if China gets weapons. Apart from a few idiots does anyone actually thinks about war. Both China, Russia and the US have enough nuclear stockpiles to destroy the Earth anyway...

[Kagetora]

So, what you're saying, Kagetora, is that you find it strange that the EUROPEAN Union wants to control Europe? Of course it does, that's the whole point. And yes, the Americans shouldn't worry, I think that the EU would probably choose to improve it's existing relations with the US, as opposed to China.

Control by all the countries is not why I think it will turn into to. A few power house countries (i.e. France and Germany) will exert more influence and gain more control and will stear the policy building and since both of those countries and the US havn't been getting along, there is cause for concern to me. It's only a matter of time before envious or jealous eyes look upon each other.

I don't see this as a unification of Europe but more of a farce by the big countries finding a new way to control the small.

BTW, what is the situation with the UN, is it still falling apart.

So ******* what if China gets weapons. Apart from a few idiots does anyone actually thinks about war. Both China, Russia and the US have enough nuclear stockpiles to destroy the Earth anyway...

Why do they need them is the real question you should ask yourself. Perhaps they have ideas about setting up a new eastern empire or expanding or taking their own weapons and selling them and than being resupplied with newer better ones that they can than just sell to Kim Jong IL. Who cares about nukes, no one willl use them, but they can still sell others.

China is still technologically behind the West when it comes to military weapons, do we really want to sell them newer and better ones and let them catch up.

[Custor]

From what I know the trade embargo was introduced because of Tienanmen square. Having full diplomatic relations has nothing to do with agreeing with a certain regime or not. US and Russia had full diplomatic relations since 1945...

Of course not, Cuba and the Taleban were exceptions to the rule.

Military weapons will force China to democracise but all other industrial technology wont? Obviously the massive increases in loans and trade between the China, Japan the US and EU countries is also to show disapproval.

Go play geopolitics, but don't feed people ++++ and tell them it's chocolate -

Mr Bush warned that arms transfers to Beijing would "change the balance" of China-Taiwan relations

Obviously he really meant please be a democracy.

[Dromikaites]

Military weapons will force China to democracise but all other industrial technology wont? Obviously the massive increases in loans and trade between the China, Japan the US and EU countries is also to show disapproval.

Yes, you're right, puting up an arms embargo and stoping at this won't force any regime change. At least not directly. I think in the long run (actually in a not so long run) communists in China would lose power precisely because there will be too many wealthy people there (and some extremely rich ones). And communism really needs poor people, people who depend on the state, who need the state's support in order to survive from one day to the next.

I said in my post that China doesn't really need those weapons and all of this is just "testing waters", gauging its own influence over the EU. And EU embargo on weapons is important not for democracy in China, because it can't influence it that way, but for the reputation of EU. If it keeps the embargo it tells China it cannot be bullied and that it cannot change its stance on an issue unless the causes that generated that stance dissappear. So for both EU and China it's not a matter of political effectiveness as much as it's an issue of "saving face". At this point in time it's important that China "loses face" and EU "saves face".

[sephodwyrm]

Hmm....the face issue.

For me, a Taiwanese native, I am looking forward to unification with China.

Actually China has a lot of problems with poverty, since it is causing problems in controlled rural-urban migrations (if you have studied human geography you would know how rural-urban migrations screw a lot of things up).