Rise of China

[dgoodman]

I think that the rapid exonomic growth of China is extremely significant for the world. I have thought much about the possibilities for the future in a bipolar or multipolar world and it interests me greatly. Here is my opinion:

China isn't going to start wars with major powers anytime soon. They are riding a huge wave of economic growth and a major war would seriously hamper that growth. Instead they will probably shore up their "minority situations" in Tibet, Manchuria, and especially, the Muslim provence of Xinjaing. They will then, if they choose to expand, either focus on Vietnam, the centeral asian republics, or Taiwan. They would probably not touch tiawan intill they have significantly improved their armed forces. Then the US would not dare intervene because a war would be too costly. I would not be supprised if they go after Vietnam also, possibly even before Taiwan. They invaded earlier in 1979 and suffered enormous casulties, however now would not have too much trouble. However, If there is a chance that any major power (US, Russia, Japan, Euroean nations) would interven I doubt China would dare doing anything. Right now China is begining economic imperialism, not military conquest, as evident with its attempts to expand in Latin America, which are remarkable themselves.

Also, one should realize that China is having difficulty keeping a lid on democratic protest due to the extreme economic growth and the anexation of HK. If it goues to war and suffers any setback, then there could be a chance for rebellion. Thus, war is not forseeable in the near future. Dont worry about the EU sales of waepons to China, in 20 years China's army will be equal, if not greater, than any otther nation's.

Please share your thoughts, I hope you all have interesting insight.

[Carsomyr]

Originally posted by mib@Mar 19 2005, 02:53 PM
I'm surprised all those people who habitually bash China just for the sake of bashing China has not found this thread yet...

The threads regarding America, its populous, its government, and policies sure are bustling.

I thought a thread decidated to China, Japan, and East Asia already existed? If I recall correctly, it's quite massive, too.

Here it is.

[dgoodman]

Originally posted by Carsomyr@Mar 19 2005, 02:47 PM

I thought a thread decidated to China, Japan, and East Asia already existed? If I recall correctly, it's quite massive, too.

Here it is.

Yea, there is one, but i want this thread to be focused on china and its rise alone. The other thread doesnt seem to have a major focus and Asia is far to large a subject. Also, I thought the thread was dead.

[Profler]

While I certainly don't pretend that I can predict the future as regards China, my own personal hypothesis is broadly along the same lines as dgoodman's.

China will not dare to risk confrontation until it is economically and militarily strong enough (national servicemen/women would not be a match for US regular troops, and even China is worried about a Nuclear holocaust), by which time other nations will probably also avoid confrontation. If China rises in the Pacific, US involvement in the middle-east will be reduced in favour of greater forces across South East Asia. With the US engaged in a second cold war with China, other emerging powers and groups may rise to prominence, creating a truly multipolar world harking back to the Imperial age of Europe.

What I think will be very interesting to see is how India and China's coal reserves come to play in the following years. With other sources of coal becoming increasingly scarcem, India and China will become equal players with Australia in controlling an increasingly rare resource.

Still, the Dragon stirs, we shall have to wait before we can judge its mood.

[meh_cd]

If things continue as they are, eventually China>US for sure.

[The Evil Emperor Mindstation]

Originally posted by meh_cd@Mar 19 2005, 02:52 PM
If things continue as they are, eventually China>US for sure.

Yes, but things never continue as they are. Anyone remember how Japan was going to take over U.S. industry?

[dgoodman]

Originally posted by The Evil Emperor Mindstation@Mar 19 2005, 07:29 PM
Yes, but things never continue as they are. Anyone remember how Japan was going to take over U.S. industry?

Good point, but japan's population and natural resources are nowhere near the size of China. Japan just had tremendous organization and a extremely skilled workforce. The two situations are uncomparable.

[TheKwas]

People forget that China, on an per-capita level, is still pratically a 3rd-world country and has ALOT of room to grow.

I think that China well overtake America peacefully. Conflict is bad for both America and China.

[Ó Cathasaigh]

Democracy in China, hopefully peaceful.

[dangerdog]

china will change, that's for sure. Revolution is highly unlikely, especially with the government enjoying popular support for the economic success it brought about. I think the reform will continue, and oneday it might becomes a meritocratic republic like Singapore -- one party dominating politics, but with with the party open to all, and a very powerful central rule. Just my guess.

Will it overcome the US? Not in the near term. Empires rise and fall, but US isn't going to fall any time soon just yet. So I'm going to guess there will be a peroid of balance. I think EU will become the 3rd major player in the global landscape. When one side gets too strong, the other two will ally and restore balance. Until one side ultimately decay, and a new era comes into being.

[Pra]

Since I am an optimist and a pessimist, :huh, I think that any of the above possibilities are possible. A Democratic revolution is as likely as a peaceful one or a war with the States. We fickle humans can't predict the future, but only speculate upon what is likely, and the future is never linear so the turn of events sure to become reality.

[Alteris]

Ack, I didn't see the "Chinese Democracy" option until it was too late. But I do believe that one way or another China will one day become a true democratic republic. This will happen as a result of a massive economic downturn, especially on the east coast, which may or may not be the result of war troubles with the United States and its allies.

If there is war, I'm sure we will see such economic problems provided the US and its east Asian allies maintain naval superiority to completely stifle Chinese trade.

[Da Skinna]

What about the avian flu, it is supposed to be about 10 million n casualties from this pandemic, can that have any real effect on China's global power growth?

[Profler]

What about the avian flu, it is supposed to be about 10 million n casualties from this pandemic, can that have any real effect on China's global power growth?

From a purely economic point of view, I would normally say no (the population mass is great enough to soak up 10 million casualties without breaking a sweat), but remember the 1 child law.

After 25 years, the generational gap is growing. In another 25 years, half of China's population could potentially be dependent on people from the One Child Generation. While China expands both industrially and economically, it needs a large population to work the land, a population that will be very much reduced if current trends continue.

A smaller more economically important population would suffer much more from a future outbreak of avian flu, with potential consequences that we cannot possibly think of predicting at this time.

[Nihil]

China is ever an inscrutable entity, it seems to me. Who foresaw the sudden and amazing move to a booming consumer economy? But my guess is reforms in the future and possibly even a move to democracy that is accomplished as smoothly as the recent remarkable changes. I think any kind of violent revoloution is unlikely.

[Marshal Qin]

I chose 'other'.

The US will remain an economic power but not to the extent it is now, it'll have to withdraw its tentacles and China will take up the slack. Both will fight each other, but probably only in proxy wars where neither side will be too badly effected - prbably in border regions around China - e.g. all the neighbouring 'stan countries, perhaps NK but not Taiwan. China will move towards democracy on its own terms and perhaps in a form that is very different from the US'. China and India will probably have another skirmish because their common border is still largely undefined.

Economically, China will grow for a while yet but it will plateau because of the banks. Once they get proper administrative systems in place (e.g. tax) they'll take off again, probably in the 2nd half of this century.

Taiwan has about 7 yrs max. and the US will only make noises but not intervene when China moves in.

[Marcus Seneca Cato]

You folks aren't taking India into account.

[Caelius]

Taiwan has about 7 yrs max. and the US will only make noises but not intervene when China moves in.

How so? The US would enjoy almost near complete air and naval superiority in any foreseable intervention against the Chinese over Taiwan, not to mention that they don't even have a large enough "Gator Navy" to even launch an invasion. Every kind of posturing China may do with the US over Taiwan is and always has been nothing more than saber-rattling.

[Marshal Qin]

lol, I don't want to rehash this topic again. find the 'all about asia' thread. sry but this taiwan thing only finished being discussed a few weeks ago

[Carsomyr]

There's not much too debate about it. If China starts acting like some big bully by pushing Taiwan, and whomever else, around, they would be threatened with nukes. Then, of course, China would threaten to retaliate with nukes. It would develop into a stalemate.