China and Taiwan

[Sulla]

With the passing of the 'anti-secession legislation' in China I'm begining to wonder what is going on here.

BBC News report

Some disturbing messages have been send by China recently. Previously the US has publicly stated that it will defend the interests of Taiwan and a free Taiwan is in the interests of the US. The Chinese Premier has increased military funding and told the military to be prepared for war.

The questions are, why now. Is it because the US is dangerously over-stretched in Iraq or are there other reasons?

Is this one of those situations that could dangerously escalate to where North Korea, South Korea and Japan get pulled in with Taiwan, China and the US. Or is it just posturing that won't go anywhere?

Thoughts.

[Marshal Qin]

Taiwan knows that China is under pressure because of the Olympics and WTO entry so they are testing the waters with regard to independance. China is just responding. They won't do anything, even if Taiwan does hold a referendum on independance until after the Olympics and the US economy is more closely tied to that of China. Come 2009 though look out Taiwan, you're living on borrowed time. I'd say China won't move in until their submarine build up is complete in 2010 (80 subs) and fully functional...say 2011-2012. I'm sure its designed to deny the US free use of the Pacific rather than outright control it. Once China can guarantee control of the straits and threaten US assets anywhere in the Pacific its all over.

http://www.washtimes.com/national/20...3134-8152r.htm

http://www.sinodefence.com/navy/sub/094.asp

http://asia-times.net/read.php?f=1&i=11069&t=11069

[Omnipotent-Q]

ha, massively strong words from the US i see:

The White House said the adoption of the new law was "unfortunate"

I think this shows a clear message, that the US are not really willing to get involved now, there lack of strong words shows this. Whilst before they were more willing to talk about "protecting Taiwan's interests".......although perhaps it should be reworded to say "US interests" to be more accurate.

Perhaps the Americans know as well as the Chinese they are bit overstreched with Iraq, as Sulla suggested.

[morble]

I agree with Marshal Qin: it's all posturing until after the Olympics. The Chinese legislation is calculated to make the Chinese lose face if Taiwan actively moves to declare (reaffirm?) itself independent--thereby providing a causus belli justification (at least in Asian eyes) for Chinese retaliation.

[username]

Yep - its all fa®ce. I seriously dont think there will be any war though - I am willing to bet on this forum that Taiwan will join China on some special terms rather than in an outright confrontation. There is too much money involved for a war.

[Trax]

Me thinks that Taiwan is the real China, the continental part is just a bunch of commy rebels *tongue*

[Xiaodun]

Ill be really brief.

The relationship between Taiwan and CHina is a matter between the Han and only the Han people. The US army sticking its head about some duty to protect Taiwan is only going to make matters worst. Its not like they are to diffrent races like Japanese and the CHinese who are practically sworn enemies, they are the same race and probably will solve their diffrences peacefully. China's use of its military as a threat isn't anything that happens occasionaly.

As for the post on Taiwan being the true government of China, It is logical to come up with a responce like that considering the past hundred or so years of history, however you must realize that the communist revolution was welcomed with opened arms by the chinese people, and the CHinese government is followed by 1.3 billion people. The people of Taiwan barely makes a faction of that. In your logic America, Australia, and Canada is a bunch of capitalist rebels and england should rule them all

[the Black Prince]

chinas military, especially the navy has develpped to the point where it can and will pose a significant threat to US navy assests operating in and around taiwan, to the point where it the possible loss of life in defending taiwan may not be politically viable in the US, especially after iraq. would you want to put a 6000 man carrier in the path of a silent undetectable submarine with a crew of 60 odd equiped with nuclear torpedoes? china will, over the next decades possess significant numbers of the russian kilos to effect a naval blockade of taiwan. i don't think america will intervene

[Xiaodun]

Ah but you are defining what a logical man will do. You forget about the American government's obsession with protecting its assets and its allies. America has gone to war to protect them on several occasions wheter the international community accepts (gulf war) or not (Iraq invasion).

[Sulla]

Where does the UN stand on Taiwanese independence? Come to think of it the US has never pushed for Taiwanese independence just leaving thing the way they are. If anything the recent and public comments Taiwan has been making about independence has caused concern in the US. I don't think they want China provoked or backed into a corner.

So then what is Taiwan doing. It virtually has independence in all but name so why bring things to a head. That seems the best way to loose it.

[Portuguese Rebel]

Where does the UN stand on Taiwanese independence?

Taiwan is until now, part of China under the international law. There isn't a "UN stand" because both the chinese and the US have veto power, so any decision is bound to be overridden by a veto. Taiwan has been trying to get recognized abroad by small countries (in exchange for financial support), and some have already established diplomatic relations (first step for a full recognition).

In regards to Taiwan itself i really don't see why the US should get involved in it. It seems that this is before hand an internal chinese affair. And to people that claim that Taiwan is a democracy and so the US has an "obligation" to defend it, please look again. Taiwan IS NOT a democracy. And about a referendum, rare are the occasions when a country allows a referendum that endangers its national integrity.

An US intervention can only be explained by strategic self interest.

I also find this interesting:

Taiwan Independence: Will of a Majority or Whim of an Elite?

Taiwan independence advocates would have an impressionable American public believe that Taiwan independence is a "grass roots movement reflecting Taiwan’s democratic will of the majority."

Classical liberal and libertarian anti-interventionists who happened to catch Taiwan independence "spokespersons" being interviewed on CNN this past week, or who surf the pages of the neocon Weekly Standard or liberal New Republic know what I’m talking about.

In fact the Taiwan independence movement is nothing of the sort.

Historians of western European history have noted wryly that, toward its end, "the Holy Roman Empire was neither Holy, nor Roman, nor an empire."

The same could be said of the "Taiwan independence movement," which from its postwar inception has been neither Taiwanese, nor independent, nor a bona fide grass roots movement.
TAIPEI’S QUISLING NOMENKLATURA, TOKYO’S SAMURAI FASCISTS, AND WASHINGTON’S BENEVOLENT GLOBAL HEGEMONISTS

The Taiwan independence movement is not a grass roots movement, but an elitist agenda. An antidemocratic, realpolitik agenda, imposed from the top down by three foreign policy elites:

A Quisling Nomenklatura in Taipei, Samurai Fascists in Tokyo, and Benevolent Global Hegemonists in Washington.

The aims of these three elites sometimes coincide, and sometimes collide. Taiwan "independence" thrives in the pestilential swamp where the three elites’ special interests overlap.

These elites’ power to foist their private agendas on the wider public is concentrated, focused. Their own citizenry’s power to resist, let alone overturn these elites’ agendas, on the other hand, is dilute, diffused.

These elites have no objections to framing their Taiwan independence agenda in populist terms to bolster public support, or neutralize popular opposition.

But make no mistake, these elites rule not by the consent of the governed, but by the whim of the governors. When push comes to shove, when ordinary ROC citizens get in the way of the juggernaught known as the Taiwan Lobby, do not delude yourself about whose privileges have priority, and whose rights will be steamrollered.
TAIPEI’S QUISLING NOMENKLATURA

The first of these three foreign policy elites is an obsequious Quisling Nomenklatura in Taipei, which sees itself as Japanese, not Chinese.

Not ordinary, decent, hardworking Japanese, but the worst, most treacherous elements of Japanese society, Japan’s fanatical right-wing militarists. Prominent among them are Rape of Nanking denier Shintaro Ishihara, neofascist Governor of Tokyo.

This Quisling Nomenklatura’s raison d’être, its prime directive, its niche in the malignant political ecology of Taiwan independence, is to act as willing puppets, proxies, "front men," for Samurai Fascists in Tokyo and Benevolent Global Hegemonists in Washington, both of whom need pretexts for the revival of naked gunboat diplomacy against China.
LEE TENG-HUI SEES CHINA THROUGH THE EYES OF A JAPANESE MILITARIST

Many China "experts," handicapped by psychological naiveté when it comes to the mind set of Taiwan’s separatist elite, have been baffled by Lee Teng-hui’s frequently erratic behavior.

Former ROC legislator Fu Kuen-chen, ROC legislator Fung Hu-hsiang, and dissident scholar Li Ao, Taiwan’s own Vaclav Havel and current nominee for the Nobel Prize in Literature have noted on the other hand, just how easy it is to understand Lee Teng-hui, once you appreciate how he sees the world.

If you want to understand Lee Teng-hui’s position on just about any issue under the sun, simply ask yourself "How would a right-wing Japanese militarist determined to reconquer Taiwan and transform it back into a Japanese colony see the issue?"

You will then have your answer.

Consider the following news headline, which flew beneath the radar of most China-watchers, but speaks volumes, providing one is familiar with the context and able to read between the lines.

"ROC President’s New Book Rolls off the Press in Japan, Tokyo, July 25 (CNA)"

The book is Asia’s Strategy. It is the third book to be written by Lee Teng-hui in Japanese, to be published first in Japan and to hit the bestseller lists first in Japan. It is the third book of its kind to be be translated into Chinese and published in Taiwan only after making its debut in Japan.

Published by the Kobunsha Publishing Company of Tokyo, "Asia’s Strategy" was in fact ghostwritten by Mineo Nakajima, president of the Tokyo University of Foreign Studies.

Text-only printable version of this article

Bevin Chu is an American architect of Chinese descent registered to practice in Texas. Currently living and working in Taiwan, Chu is the son of a retired high-ranking diplomat with the ROC (Taiwan) government. His column, "The Strait Scoop," now appears occasionally on Antiwar.com.


Archived Columns

Taiwan Independence: Will of a Majority or Whim of an Elite?
8/18/00

Jesse Helms, Senator from Taiwan
4/7/00

Farewell, Mr. Democracy
3/31/00

Taiwan’s Fraudulent Election
(3/21/00)

Taiwan’s Day of Decision
(3/17/00)

One China, Two Systems
(3/10/00)

Taiwan’s Pseudo-Democracy
(3/3/00)

Taiwan Independence and the 2-28 Incident
(2/25/00)

The Least of Three Evils
(2/18/00)

A New Millennium, Really
(2/11/00)

Taiwan Independence Beats a Retreat
(2/4/00)

Hollywood's Tibet: Tinseltown's Sacred Cow
(12/17/99)

International Trade and National Security: Back to Basics
(12/10/99)

Tibetan-Chinese Are Not American Indians
(12/3/99)

American China Policy versus Common Sense
(11/26/99)

Letter to an American Patriot
(11/19/99)

The Myth of Casualty Aversion
(11/12/99)

Gary Bauer's Un-American Values
(11/5/99)

The Dalai Lama's Politics of Race
(10/29/99)

A Republic, Not an Empire: The Conventional Wisdom is Wrong, Dead Wrong
(10/22/99)

All Politicians are Essentially Actors: Al Pacino, Ronald Reagan and Lee Teng-hui
(10/15/99)

Playing Politics with Taiwan's Quake Victims
(10/8/99)

Taiwan's Great Earthquake and the Mandate of Heaven
(10/1/99)

Taiwan's Little Emperors
(9/24/99)

Globocops With Guillotines
(9/17/99)

Taiwan Independence and the Stockholm Syndrome
(9/10/99)

Taiwan Independence and Free Lunches (8/31/99)

Inside the Taiwan Political Scene (8/19/99)

American Values in Dire Straits (8/10/99)
GOT THAT?

A 250 page volume nominally authored by a Chinese president, presumably representing the national interests of the Republic of China, was in fact written by a Japanese rightist, in Japanese, published first in Japan for the edification of Japanese readers.

Within this Japanese rightist authored and published anti-China tract, not the first but the third of its kind, Lee vows to "devote the rest of his life to strengthening relations between the people of Taiwan and Japan." Not the people of China and Japan, mind you, but the people of Taiwan and Japan.

Do I really need to say more?

See also "Taiwan Independence and the Stockholm Syndrome."
ROC INVESTORS JUST SAY NO TO A-BIAN

During the four months following Chen Shui-bian’s narrow victory, hopes have run high. Maybe, just maybe "A-Bian," as he is in the habit of referring to himself, in the third person, would be more pragmatic, more realistic, more reasonable than his Kamikaze pilot predecessor Lee Teng-hui.

Lately those hopes have fallen in synch with Taiwan’s stock market.

"Taiwanization" is a Quisling euphemism for Japanization. "Taiwanization" is a Trojan horse whose belly conceals the forces of Japanese neocolonialism.

According to an August 5 Straits Times article "It’s called ‘Taiwanisation," "under President Chen Shui-bian and the Democratic Progressive Party, the Taiwanisation process begun during President Lee Teng-hui’s last term, would continue and even gather pace... Chinese history would be taught as foreign history."

On inauguration day a pleased as punch A-Bian, grinning ear to ear, went on television and exhorted the ROC public to "Buy stocks!"

Their democratic will frustrated by "Mr. Democracy" Lee Teng-hui’s manipulation of the election, ROC voters, millions of whom are also investors, promptly held an unofficial runoff election of their own. This time they voted with their NT Dollars. They phoned their brokers and yelled "Sell!"

An election ballot for Taiwan’s presidential election may have be free for the asking, but shares of Taiwan Semiconductor are not.

The TAIEX has slipped steadily since Chen Shui-bian was elected on March 18 and inaugurated on May 20. From a 52 week high of 10,393, Taiwan’s Weighted Index has fallen to a recent low of 7670.

The problem is not Taiwan’s market fundamentals, which are relatively healthy. The problem is Taiwan’s political climate, which is anything but.

The problem is Taiwan’s arrogant separatist nomenklatura, which cares more about converting 23 million citizens of the Republic of China into citizens of a "Republic of Taiwan" against their will, from the top down, than it does about protecting their lives and livelihood.

These numbers, alarming as they are, do not begin to tell the whole story behind public lack of confidence in the pro-independence Chen regime. Lee Teng-hui and now Chen Shui-bian have been propping up TAIEX share prices for the past several years. They have been desperately throwing money misappropriated from government pension funds and Post Office Certificates of Deposit at the problem, to little avail.

Taipei’s Quisling Nomenklatura is nearing the end of its rope. Over half the available cash reserves available to defend the TAIEX have already been frittered away.

Investor confidence remains shaky.

All that is necessary for Taiwan’s stock market to drop off a precipice into uncontrolled freefall is another separatist induced political crisis. The remaining funds would be utterly inadequate to stem the panic selling that would ensue. Millions of ordinary ROC citizens’ hard-earned wealth would be wiped out in a single trading week.
ANNETTE LU-NATIC PRAISES "EFFICIENT" JAPANESE COLONIAL RULE

The astonishingly accurate Rule of Thumb for Lee Teng-hui applies equally to Annette Lu, Chen Shui-bian’s vice-president, whom former political prisoner Li AO refers to as "that crazy woman," "that mad harridan."

Annette Lu recently attended a lovefest hosted by right-wingers in Japan, where she gushed about how grateful she was that Japan defeated China during Japan’s 1894 war of aggression against China and occupied Taiwan for 50 years, because "efficient" Japanese colonial governance spared Taiwan from "incompetent Chinese rule."

Annette Lu considers herself a feminist. Ms. Lu will expound at great length to anyone who will listen why she deserves to be considered the "Godmother of Taiwanese Feminism."

Ms. Lu did not comment on whether the "comfort women" of Taiwan, Korea and the Philippines, who were abducted at bayonet point by the Japanese Imperial Army and subjected to gang rape by up to 60 Japanese soldiers a day, who were promptly executed if they refused to comply, shared her nostalgia for "efficient" Japanese colonial governance.

Ms. Lu did not comment on whether the 300,000 unarmed civilian victims of Japan’s 1937 Rape of Nanking, including women who were first raped, then disemboweled, then photographed as "souvenirs," whose infant children who were tossed into the air and impaled on the tips of Japanese soldiers’ bayonets, shared her warm recollections of Japanese "efficiency."
I HATE TO SAY I TOLD YOU SO, BUT...

According to a Straits Times report Annette Lu met with Koki Kobayashi, a member of Japan’s Parliament in Taipei today. She declared that Japan should create a coalition of Northeast Asian nations that would include Taiwan and South Korea, but not China. She "did not say why she did not suggest allowing China to join the proposed group," but "the Japanese lawmaker agreed with Ms Lu."
TAIWAN INDEPENDENCE "HARD-LINER" LIN CHUNG-MO HIDES BEHIND AMERICA’S SKIRTS

Taiwan independence zealots, demagogues and buffoons do not rate the appellation "hard-liners." Normally an epithet, "hard-liner" flatters them. Despite negative connotations, "hard-liner" implies positive attributes like firmness, toughness and resolve. Taiwan independence "hard-liners" however, are anything but firm, tough and resolute.

Pro-reunification legislators recently confronted "hard-line" DPP legislator Lin Chung-mo on a live "McLaughlin Group" type talk show on Taiwan television. They demanded to know what DPP "hard-liners" proposed to do if DDP separatism provoked a shooting war with the mainland.

Lin’s reply, without the slightest hesitation or hint of irony, was "Heng jian dan. Bao ze mei guo de da tueh."

"Very simple. Hide behind America’s skirts."

"Bao ze mei guo de DA tueh" is literally "hug America’s thigh," but "cling to America’s skirts" or "hide behind America’s skirts" is more idiomatic.

Lin’s attitude was typical. The only thing atypical was Lin’s candor. Most Taiwan separatists know better than to flash their "Ace in the Hole" so casually, so freely.

The term for "independence" in Chinese is "du li." Du means alone. Li means to stand. Du li means "to stand alone." Taiwan’s separatist elite never tires of asserting that "Taiwan is a sovereign and independent nation."

Maybe it’s just me. But strident Taiwan separatist assertions that Taiwan is "in-dependent," i.e., "not dependent," and "stands alone," are a little hard to reconcile with the image of the Taipei’s Quisling Nomenklatura as terrified children in diapers, sucking on their thumbs and clinging to Uncle Sammy’s thigh for dear life.

Political cartoonists could have a field day.
TOKYO’S SAMURAI FASCISTS

The second foreign policy elite is comprised of diehard Samurai Fascists in Tokyo who have never forsaken their megalomaniac dreams of a Japan-dominated "Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere."

Twelve of the nineteen members of Japanese Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori’s Cabinet, and the Governors of Tokyo and Osaka, are Taiwan independence fellow travelers.

This has not escaped the notice of Annette Lu, who urged Chen Shui-bian "not to pass up this rare opportunity to strengthen ties with Japan." For Taiwan independence forces to place far more emphasis on relations with the United States, Lu warned, was "not necessarily a wise strategy."
WASHINGTON’S BENEVOLENT GLOBAL HEGEMONISTS

The third and final leg of this unsavory triad of arrogant elites consists of our very own, homegrown "Benevolent Global Hegemonists," whose job is to be the Enforcer, the hired muscle, the leg-breakers for the Taipei and Tokyo elites.

Stimulus: Lee Teng-hui provokes a crisis in the Taiwan Straits.

Response: William Jefferson Clinton dispatches two carrier battle groups to the rescue.

The World’s Only Remaining Superpower, Madeleine Albright’s "Indispensable Nation," which "stands tall and sees further into the future," at the pinnacle of Charles Krauthammer’s "Unipolar Moment," is in the trenchant words of former Secretary of State Lawrence Eagleburger, being "played like a fiddle."

Pity the poor hegemonists.
THE TAIWAN INDEPENDENCE ELITES’ TRUE AGENDA

What is uppermost in the hearts and minds of these foreign policy elites? What exactly is it that they’re after? What’s their angle?

Is it, as they never tire of assuring us in the oily tones of used car salesmen, heartfelt compassion for suffering of the Chinese people?

China has an estimated population of 1.329 billion. One point three billion on the mainland. Another twenty-three million on Taiwan. Another six million in Hongkong.

After a century and a half of humiliating abuse by foreign powers, the one feeling shared by China’s 1.329 billion people is relief. Relief that the Chinese people need no longer endure further abuse by the same foreign policy elites now affecting such tender concern for their well-being.

Does anybody believe Taipei’s Quisling Nomenklatura and their Samurai Fascists fellow travelers in Tokyo actually feel what China’s 1.329 billion people feel?

Or do they feel something very different?

Is the emotion they’re feeling instead, anxiety?

Anxiety that "bad karma" may be coming back to haunt them? Anxiety that what went around in the 19th century, may come around in the 21st? Anxiety that China may be, gasp, a superpower sometime during the 21st century? Perhaps even, God forbid, THE superpower of the 21st century?
LIVING WELL IS THE BEST REVENGE

The China Threat theorists should chill out.

China is neither Nazi Germany, nursing grievances about the unjust Treaty of Versailles, nor fascist Japan, nursing grievances about the unjust Treaty of Kanagawa.

See "A Republic, Not an Empire: The Conventional Wisdom is Wrong, Dead Wrong."

China does not thirst for revenge. The Chinese, like the Spanish, know that "living well is the best revenge," and that "an eye for an eye only makes everyone blind."

All China demands of the Tokyo and Washington elites is "Don’t tread on me!" Surely America, among all the nations of the world, ought to be able to understand that.

A Chinese expression says "those who engage in thievery assume others are out to rob them."

China demonizers, the dedicated, hardworking professional Sinophobes on the so-called "Blue Team" in particular, would do well to consider whether the panic they’re experiencing doesn’t originate in the dark recesses of their own subconscious.
THE DEMOCRATIC WILL OF THE TAIWAN PEOPLE

Americans who want to know the true "democratic will of the Taiwan people" need only consult the results of the recent ROC presidential election of March 18, 2000.

Sixty-one percent of ROC voters who went to the polls voted AGAINST the candidate and party distinguished by their advocacy of Taiwan independence, Chen Shui-bian and the DPP.

So why did the pro-independence candidate win?

The reason Chen won, with a 39% plurality, was the anti-independence vote was split. Two anti-independence candidates, James Soong and Lien Chan, received 37% and 23% of the vote respectively.

But why was the anti-independence vote split?
MR. ANTI-DEMOCRACY

The anti-independence vote was split because Newsweek’s "Mr. Democracy," Lee Teng-hui, then Chairman of the ruling KMT, wanted his own party’s candidates TO LOSE.

Millions of loyal KMT members wanted the immensely popular James Soong, former Governor of Taiwan Province, to run on a Soong/Lien or Lien/Soong ticket with then Vice-president Lien Chan. Such a ticket would have meant a landslide victory for two candidates opposed to Taiwan independence.

This was intolerable to Lee Teng-hui, who openly declared that he considered himself the Moses of Taiwan independence, and the DPP’s Chen Shui-bian his successor Joshua.

To ensure that his own party’s candidates LOST, KMT Chairman Lee deliberately blocked efforts to set up a Soong/Lien or Lien/Soong ticket, eventually forcing James Soong out of the party.

When Soong subsequently ran as an independent, he did so in the belief he could win, even with Lien splitting off part of his support. As the results show, he wasn’t far from wrong. He got 37% to Chen’s 39% and Lien’s 23%. He lost by a slim 2% margin.

But why did a candidate with less than an absolute majority win? Doesn’t the ROC have run-offs for presidential elections?

No it doesn’t.

Why the hell not?
AN ANTIDEMOCRATIC UNPROGRESSIVE DPP

The ROC doesn’t have run-offs for presidential elections because four years ago "Mr. Democracy" Lee Teng-hui and "Taiwan’s Son" Chen Shui-bian successfully blocked a New Party proposal to amend the ROC’s election laws.

Taipei’s Quisling Nomenklatura is painfully aware of how few voters support Taiwan independence. Dyed in the wool Taiwan separatists have never amounted to more than 15% of the island’s population.

A run-off election this March would have put the reformist, pro-reunification "mainlander" James Soong, not A-Bian, in the president’s office.

An absolute majority requirement would make it impossible for a pro-independence candidate to become president and impose a pro-independence agenda on the ROC electorate.

See "Taiwan’s Fraudulent Election."
TAIWAN INDEPENDENCE IS "BOX OFFICE POISON"

If the ordinary man in the street actually yearned for Taiwan independence, why didn’t he vote for Chen Shui-bian of the pro-independence DPP?

Here was his chance to do so.

Was anybody stopping him?

More to the point, if the ordinary man in the street actually demanded Taiwan independence, why didn’t Chen Shui-bian ringingly affirm his previously expressed dream of declaring independence the moment he got into office, as part of his campaign platform?

Why instead did Chen promise that if elected, he absolutely, positively would NOT make the slightest move toward independence during his four year term?

Could it have been because during the runup to election day even DPP legislators and party officials were muttering under their breath how "Taidu shi piao fang du yao," or "Taiwan independence is box office poison?"

Taipei’s Quisling Nomenklatura knew this was their moment of truth. Obstinately cleave to "Taiwan independence forever!" and remain an opposition party, forever. Or uphold, or pretend to uphold Chinese reunification, and become the ruling party, now.

We all know what Chen chose.
MAINLAND CHINA’S TRAGIC DETOUR

At watershed moments in history, tiny but determined elites can and have decided the fates of millions, for good or for ill.

When Mao’s Communists defeated Chiang’s Nationalists in 1949, less than 5% of China’s population were members of the Chinese Communist Party. Most of China consisted of illiterate, apolitical peasants whose ideology began and ended with not wanting to starve to death.

The life and death struggle between communism and capitalism in 1949 China was a life and death struggle between two educated political elites.

Mao’s victory forced the Chinese mainland to take a tragic, three decade long detour down a socialist blind alley.

Fortunately Deng Xiaoping, the man whom Mao denounced as the "Number Two Capitalist Roader," saw the error of Mao’s dirigiste ways. Deng’s successor Jiang Zemin is dismantling China’s money-losing state owned enterprises as fast as humanly possible, and bringing mainland China back onto the path of free market capitalism.

China bashers, predictably, dismiss mainland China’s reforms as "too slow." Too slow? Compared to what?

No nation in history has reformed its economic system and improved the lives of as many of her people as swiftly as China has during the last two decades.

Sure, mainland China still has a long way to go, but let’s not pretend we don’t appreciate how astonishingly far she’s already come. Not only economically, but socially.

Beijing is arguably more tolerant toward private social conduct that doesn’t threaten China’s political stability, such as homosexuality, than authoritarian neoconservatives Gary Bauer or Jesse Helms.

"Taiwan doesn’t want to reunify with mainland China because it doesn’t want to live under totalitarian communism" just doesn’t cut it as an excuse any more.
THE SUCCESSFUL HONGKONG MODEL

Remember the epidemic of doomsday scenarios conjured up by professional China bashers within our liberal media and neocon think tanks?

PLA tanks rolling into Hongkong. Hongkong Democrats rounded up and jailed a la Tienanmen Square, Czechoslovakia’s Prague Spring or the Hungarian Uprising.

Never happened.

Hongkong has been unmolested now for three straight years.

Even former British appointed Hongkong Governor Chris Patten, whom no one can accuse of being an apologist for Beijing, has freely acknowledged that Beijing has kept its word regarding Hongkong.

Hongkong Democrats were wrong in 1997 about Hongkong, and the DPP is wrong in 2000 about Taiwan.
WHEN IS THE PRESIDENT OF THESE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA NOT AN AMERICAN?

Since inauguration Chen Shui-bian and Annette Lu have defied a broad-based, grass roots public outcry demanding that they state unequivocally "I am Chinese."

They have refused to comply. They have bobbed and weaved. They have played lawerly word games.

Annette Lu’s mealy-mouthed response was a real gem, "If being Chinese means being a citizen of the People’s Republic of China, then I am not Chinese."

Excuse me Annette, but that wasn’t the question. The question was "Are you Chinese?"

How can the Vice-president of the Republic of China not be Chinese?

How can the Vice-president of these United States of America not be American?

What are patriotic Americans to make of an American politician who after being elected to the office of Vice-president of these United States of America, evades demands that he ringingly affirm "I am an American?"

What are patriotic Chinese to make of a Chinese politician who after being elected to the office of Vice-president of the Republic of China, evades demands that she ringingly affirm "I am Chinese?"

If Chen Shui-bian and Annette Lu want to be "Taiwanese" and "Citizens of Taiwan" so badly, they should have declared their candidacy for President and Vice-president of the "Republic of Taiwan."

They should not have run, under false pretenses, for President and Vice-president of the Republic of China.

One of the eligibility requirements for President and Vice-president of the Republic of China is that the candidates be Chinese.

What can I say? The Chinese Constitution is funny that way.
THE REPUBLIC OF CHINA IS NOT TAIWAN

The Republic of China is not "Taiwan." Taiwan is a Chinese province. Taiwan is merely one of thirty odd Chinese provinces.

The Republic of China on the other hand, is a nation. A nation whose territory includes not only Taiwan, but the Chinese mainland as well.

There is no nation on God’s green earth named Taiwan. There is only the Republic of China.

Article Four of the Constitution of the Republic of China spells out Taiwan’s legal status, clearly and unambigously. Both the Chinese mainland and all offshore Chinese islands, including Hainan Island and Taiwan, are inseparable parts of a single, unified, indivisible China.

Even though the mainland portion of China is currently under the control of the Chinese Communist Party, a rival Chinese political party, it is nevertheless an integral part of China.

Even though the mainland portion of China is referred to as the People’s Republic of China, it is not a foreign country.

Rather, the regions controlled by the CCP and the regions controlled by the KMT (and now DPP) are autonomous regions of a single, unified, indivisible China.

If the Taiwan separatist elite can accept this premise, then there is no problem.

If the Taiwan separatist elite can accept this premise, then there will be no Straits conflict.

If the Taiwan separatist elite can accept this premise, then everything else can be discussed, calmly, peacefully, between fellow Chinese.

If on the other hand, Taipei’s Quisling Nomenklatura remains obdurate, and persists in its efforts to turn China’s Taiwan province back into a Japanese colony, de facto or otherwise, then all bets are off.

Patriotic Chinese on both the mainland and on Taiwan, including within the ROC armed forces, will not sit idly by for fifty years, but will reunify China by force, NOW.

Then instead of One Country, Two Systems, Taipei’s Quisling Nomenklatura will find themselves living under One Country, One System.

They will no longer need to concern themselves about a shrinking New Taiwan Dollar, because they will be using Renmingbi.

Beijing can be rigid and inflexible in some areas, but if the Taiwan separatist elite will acknowledge the truth of One China, in earnest and not merely as a cover for ongoing covert separatism, then the Taiwan region of China will be left alone for a half century, while the mainland liberalizes politically and catches up economically.

At the end of this half century, both sides can then reunify peacefully, in the manner of east and west Germany, and in the near future, north and south Korea.

The ball is in Chen Shui-bian’s court. Is Chen going to obediently live out the role of Joshua assigned him by Lee Teng-hui? Or is he going to surprise us all and transform himself into a statesman on the order of Korea’s Kim Daejung? Only time will tell.
TAIPEI’S QUISLING NOMENKLATURA DOESN’T WANT TO BE CHINESE. IT WANTS TO BE JAPANESE

Beijing’s offer of "One Country, Two Systems, Fifty Years, No Change," is eminently reasonable and surprisingly accommodating. Yet Taipei’s Quisling Nomenklatura has repeatedly rejected it out of hand, based on utterly subjective, non-rational considerations.

Taipei’s Quisling Nomenklatura’s real sticking point, as they have conceded in their more candid moments is, "We don’t want to be Chinese."

Taipei’s Quisling nomenklatura prefers instead to be Japanese, or ersatz Japanese, as I noted in "Taiwan Independence and the Stockholm Syndrome"

This, naturally, is not the objection Taipei’s Quisling Nomenklatura will cop to when western observers wonder why they continue to drag their feet, when German reunification has already made history, and Korean reunification is about to.

They know that their real motivation, however much it may ingratiate them with Japanese rightists, is extremely unlikely to elicit the slightest sympathy from Americans, certainly not veterans of WWII’s Pacific Theater. Certainly not survivors of the Bataan Death March. Certainly not survivors of the Japanese Imperial Army Unit 731’s ghastly "medical" experiments.

Instead Taipei’s Quisling Nomenklatura will recite the comforting catechism they know western sympathizers want to hear. Freedom, democracy, human rights, undying enmity to godless communism.
THE REPUBLIC OF CHINA AND THE CALIFORNIA REPUBLIC

Whether individual American states have a right to secede from the Union is for Americans to decide. It is none of China’s business, and China to her credit has never presumed to make America’s internal politics her business. China’s Manchu court after all, did not to take sides in our American Civil War back in 1861.

Now would sanctimonious liberal and neocon interventionists Sam Gejdenson and Dana Rohrabacher return the favor, and butt out? Please?

China is not America. The Republic of China, or for that matter the People’s Republic of China, is not "These United States of America."

China is not a federation of sovereign states like "These United States of America," or even "The United States of America."

Rather, China is more akin to ONE of America’s fifty sovereign states. The Republic of China in this sense is more akin to The Sovereign State of Virginia or The California Republic.

Just as an individual county belonging to one of America’s sovereign states is an administrative region of that state, and does not have a constitutional right to secede from that state, so China’s provinces are administrative regions of a sovereign China, and do not have a constitutional right to secede from China.

Both the ROC and PRC versions of China’s Constitution agree. The Province of Taiwan is indivisible part of China. Taiwan does not have any constitutional right to secede from China.
TREASON IS THE REASON

The Constitution of the Republic of China is a One China Constitution. There is no Two Chinas Constitution. There is no One China, One Taiwan Constitution.

Elected officials of the Republic of China who honor the"One China Principle" are patriots fulfilling their solemn duty to uphold the laws of the nation in which they hold office.

Elected officials of the Republic of China who violate the "One China Principle" by promoting Taiwan independence once they have gotten into office, are cowards guilty of high treason.

All patriotic, pro-reunification Chinese on Taiwan demand of their elected officials is that they uphold and defend the Constitution of the Repulic of China.
Is that really so much to ask?

[Aristophanes]

...wow, that goes far beyond questionable into the sphere of blatant propaganda... whether officially sanctioned by the Chinese Politburo or simply some Chinese nationalists' view of what things 'should be' and 'are.'

Read that again slowly mr Portugese Rebel...pure rhetoric. There aren't even any facts to contend... This happens to be almost as stupid as the Bush 9/11 theories.

You may be a teacher[which I'm sorry to hear], but you need to develop some critical thinking of your own, and stop giving credence to documents merely because they use the buzzwords you love: 'rightist,' 'elitist,' 'hegemony,' 'imperialist,' et al... The problem is further exascerbated by the relative ignorance of everyone on this forum, considering none of us has been to Taiwan; nor do we have much familiarity with the region. I include Qin in that because he is presently living an area which is autocratic, militaristic, and openly hostile to the nation we are discussing.

As an aside, ****** international law...It's time we started doing the courageous and right thing: recognize Taiwan as an autonomous entity.

[Xiaodun]

No it is not the time for AMerica to do a "courageous and right thing."

One of the many reasons the situation there is so confusing is because america, greatest military power/meddler of the world is going around sending aircraft carriers and other warships there. The article does have a point, although I strongly disagree with Ishihara SHintaro being called a facist (he did win the record breakingly win the election for Tokyo governer you know), so much of Taiwan's actions are dictated by the US. The Taiwanese people are being used as a tool for Japanese and AMerican diplomacy in the far east.

[username]

While I may not agree with everything it is true that Taiwan is used as a leverage by the Japanese and Americans.

[GodEmperor Nicholas]

Government Taiwan

Country name:

Definition Field Listing
conventional long form: none
conventional short form: Taiwan
local long form: none
local short form: T'ai-wan
former: Formosa


Government type:
Definition Field Listing
multiparty democratic regime headed by popularly-elected president and unicameral legislature

http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/...k/geos/tw.html

In regards to Taiwan itself i really don't see why the US should get involved in it. It seems that this is before hand an internal chinese affair. And to people that claim that Taiwan is a democracy and so the US has an "obligation" to defend it, please look again. Taiwan IS NOT a democracy. And about a referendum, rare are the occasions when a country allows a referendum that endangers its national integrity.

Taiwan is a democracy. Even if it wasnt--If they ask for our help, should we never support nationalistic movements from oppressive states with spotty human rights records? Sounds like a "just" conflict to mediate to me...

While I may not agree with everything it is true that Taiwan is used as a leverage by the Japanese and Americans.

Taiwan is most certainly used as a leverage against the Chinese, much like N Korea has been used as a leverage by the chinese against us.

NM

[morble]

Um, it's all very nice to talk about strategic interests and political necessity and honor and such, but it all comes down to money. For decades, Taiwan has been the 3rd largest trading partner with the US. (At least, that's how the situation was the last time I looked--it might be a little farther down the list now.) The US is not going to let a major trading partner get "eaten" by any other country. No way, no how, is that going to happen.

China can "seduce" Taiwan politically, and subsume US interests by surpassing and overwhelming dollar exchanges through Taiwan by increasing US trade with China. If China tries to "rape" Taiwan, by military force, it will be war--either cold, or possibly even hot.

[Profler]

As an aside, ****** international law...It's time we started doing the courageous and right thing: recognize Taiwan as an autonomous entity.

Heh, the day the international community becomes a place of courageous and right actions, I'm moving to Mumbai and establishing a gin trading company.

Um, it's all very nice to talk about strategic interests and political necessity and honor and such, but it all comes down to money. For decades, Taiwan has been the 3rd largest trading partner with the US. (At least, that's how the situation was the last time I looked--it might be a little farther down the list now.) The US is not going to let a major trading partner get "eaten" by any other country. No way, no how, is that going to happen.

China can "seduce" Taiwan politically, and subsume US interests by surpassing and overwhelming dollar exchanges through Taiwan by increasing US trade with China. If China tries to "rape" Taiwan, by military force, it will be war--either cold, or possibly even hot.

Personally I can't see anything happening for at least a decade, China will be forced to as you say force Taiwan into a position of less importance in the eyes of the US.

Once China supercedes Taiwan as a US trading partner (inevitable given the sheer size of the resources and workforce available), the matter would be very different. If you add this to a steadily growing Chinese military (not to mention a relatively minor issue called Thermonuclear war), I can see the US having very little choice but to back down were China to invade Taiwan in the next decade or two.

Nevertheless, the chinese dragon is a difficult beast to read, we shall have to wait and see what it chooses to do about its small neighbour.

[Xiaodun]

I dont think that this situation is really going to change quickly. The Chinese government may seem rash at times but they arnt foolish enough to try to seize Taiwan by military force. Even if the American government takes up a more passive role like you stated, China will probably just continue to ignore Taiwan's local government. The stalemate there will probably continue for another 50 or so years before drastic change

[Wild Bill Kelso]

yay I can use my picture again:

from this thread:

http://www.twcenter.net/forums/index.php?s...hl=Taiwan&st=24




Below is a current read out of a CIA spy satellite being monitered at CIA headquarters..

Agent Bob: HOLY S#%T!! Jack come here you will never believe it!
Agent Jack: Oh my gentle Jesus.. Them crazy Chow Mien mothers actually did it. Better wake up the President..


Bye Bye Taiwan

By the Numbers... Taiwan would hold out for awhile as the Chinese would have to mount a sea invasion. I believe the Taiwanese have very advanced fighter and Naval capabilites when compared to thier chinese counterparts (even though much fewer in numbers). Recently China has been modernizing is armed forces as can be seen by its relativly large military budget. Eventually the Chinese Juggernaut would beat down the Taiwanese forces by sheer attrition but at a high cost.

Look at it this way(purely for the sake of entertainment biggrin.gif ). The width of the strait of Formosa is about 112 kilometers. Now lets say the average Chinese soldier is about 1.6 meters high. It would take around 70,000 soldiers wearing life jackets and holding the feet of the man in freont to make a human bridge from the mainland to Taiwan. So the Chinese can make about 140 of these bridges and still have 100 million men to cross over and invade the island. Sheesh the Chinese could build about 15 invasion bridges from Shaghai to Los Angeles (around 10,500KM) and still have 100,000,000 million men to invade the USA tongue.gif .

[Xiaodun]

I posted the exact same thing in the thread in General Discussions but I thought this would be a good place to post this

Everyone seems to think that China is waiting for an oppurtunity to nuke Japan and Taiwan and take over the Far East. However, although CHina does use military pressure to enforce their opinions that is because China was the center of the Far East for many centuries and even the island barbarians of Japan (although I really dont like calling myself a barbarian culturally thats all we are compared to China) swore fealty to the Ming dynasty. Thus China's diplomacy may seem a bit hostile to westerners, thats the stance they been using for the past 2400 years. The Chinese however are a responsible and insightful people and understand the risks of using military force and arnt about to become the new tyrant of the world by conquering Taiwan or seizing Japanese land. The past history between Taiwan/Japan and CHina combined with the patriotic chinese citizens are going to make this area a tense spot for half a century or so but we all have our cultural and religious roots in CHina and considering our cultural similarities we should be able to peacefully sort this problem out