Russia saved our asses in WWII?

[FirstManOnTheMoon]

I didn't miss it, because it has no value to the debate. What "pressing war related work"? What did these men need to do? What value did they add to the a-bomb program? Most importantly - would these conditions no longer exist if the Germans only had the Western Allies to contend with?

So, yet again, I think it is far easier to say the US would get the bomb first, then it is to say the Germans would.

These scientists were diverted away from the a-bomb program to pressing war related work - development of new tanks,etc., it doesn't really matter.

Since this is a "what if?" scenario, then "if" the Nazis did not execute or drive away the Jewish scientists, Germany would get the a-bomb first.

[conon394]

These scientists were diverted away from the a-bomb program to pressing war related work - development of new tanks,etc., it doesn't really matter.

There was no diversion of German atomic bomb scientists – this is typical of the same kind of what if that imagines just not a war in the east but a whole host of other what-ifs that don’t many any sense in the context of how Nazi Germany worked or was likely to do.

The German program was small and fragmented primarily do to its own leading scientists not Hitler (well not directly the inefficient and competing bureaucracies of his state were certainly a factor), not the war and not the war with Russia….

It been well documented in this thread more than a few times that the leading German scientists did not view a bomb as a near term endeavor before or after the war in Russia. IN any case the transfer to non-military control does not appear to have reduced the size of the German program, and since the German military apparently seems to have started its own program anyway – it actually increased.

The most critical thing is that the German scientists made a couple of key mistakes such that they imagined the scale of effected needed for a bomb was vastly inflated, and they always believed they were in the lead.

So you need to what if:

No war in Russia, and…

No scientific blunders and arrogance,
A reduced effort in other high tech programs – not tanks and just war equipment for Russia – but Jets and Rockets who were the atomic programs real rivals for resources.
A radically more successful German intelligence operation and/or signals/encryption work such that the Germans would have become aware of just how big and advanced the US/UK program was.
And finally a less Byzantine political system and better cooperation amongst the key German atomic research groups.

[OTZ]

These scientists were diverted away from the a-bomb program to pressing war related work - development of new tanks,etc., it doesn't really matter.

It does matter. Conon asserts atomic-scientists weren't diverted. Your previous post describes these individuals as people "not working in the main institutes". You haven't told me who they were, what they were doing, or what value they added to the program. They could have been labourers for all I know at this point.

Since this is a "what if?" scenario, then "if" the Nazis did not execute or drive away the Jewish scientists, Germany would get the a-bomb first.

Sure - it's a "what if", but we know they wouldn't have done that. Your'e now totally within the realm of fantasy, instead of the realm of possibility.

[FirstManOnTheMoon]

It does matter. Conon asserts atomic-scientists weren't diverted. Your previous post describes these individuals as people "not working in the main institutes". You haven't told me who they were, what they were doing, or what value they added to the program. They could have been labourers for all I know at this point.

Sure - it's a "what if", but we know they wouldn't have done that. Your'e now totally within the realm of fantasy, instead of the realm of possibility.

After 1942 the German a-bomb project was divided between many institutes - the scientists diverted to other than the few major institutes were relocated on to other war-related projects.

Well, then you could say that without the Eastern Front, the US would never declare war on Germany until they actually get the A-bomb. Until then, Britain goes down, North Africa & Middle East go down - America occupied with Japanes & does not want to get involved with the 100% of the Wehrmacht (instead of 25%).

[OTZ]

After 1942 the German a-bomb project was divided between many institutes - the scientists diverted to other than the few major institutes were relocated on to other war-related projects.

Great - but it doesn't answer my questions. Who were they? What did they do? What value did they add to the program? Where did they go...etc etc. There's nothing to suggest that the Germans would have gotten the bomb at all, given what we already know about the limited progress they made, the disorganised status of their program, and a myriad of other things that worked against acquiring the bomb.

Well, then you could say that without the Eastern Front, the US would never declare war on Germany until they actually get the A-bomb.

Two things wrong about your statement here. Germany declared war on the US first, and the Manhattan Project was not a result of war between the US and Germany.

Until then, Britain goes down, North Africa & Middle East go down - America occupied with Japanes & does not want to get involved with the 100% of the Wehrmacht (instead of 25%).

I don't think Britain would "go down". The motivation to assualt Britain didn't exist in anything other than superficial discussions. The means weren't there either. The Germans had their chance in 1941 and the yrefused to take the opportunity (because they knew they couldn't do it successfully).

As noted above, since it was Germany that declared war on the US, the same "Germany First" principle would apply in this scenario. The Allies still get the bomb before Germany does, and the Germans still lose the war.

[Spartacus the Irish]

Two things wrong about your statement here. Germany declared war on the US first, and the Manhattan Project was not a result of war between the US and Germany.

I'm unsure what you mean by this exactly, but the Manhatten Project was intended to produce atomic weapons to use against Germany. Japan merely pulled the short straw by lastig longer than Germany did.

EDIT: Or are you saying that the Mahatten Project was already ongoing, before Germany declared war against the US? After re-reading it, I think this might be what you're trying to say.

I don't think Britain would "go down". The motivation to assualt Britain didn't exist in anything other than superficial discussions. The means weren't there either. The Germans had their chance in 1941 and the yrefused to take the opportunity (because they knew they couldn't do it successfully).

Agreed. Britain was never an actual target of Germany - she invaded the Low Countries and France simplpy because Britain and France declared war over Poland, something which Hitler had been told by his foreign office that would never happen. Why do you think there was a 'Phoney War' - because Germany was totally unprepared for war against the West in 1939-40. That seems like a ludicrous statement given how quickly France fell, but that was much more concerned with French and British gaping weaknesses than German strengths.

Anyway, to get back to my point, I highly doubt even the German's seriously considered See Lowe to be feasible - the invasion plans and preparations were definitely half-hearted and half-arsed, to be frank. The BoB was designed to bring Britain to the negotiating table moreso than open the way for invasion. Thus I too cannot see Britain 'going down' in such a scenario; and with Churchill at the helm, there would always be the possibility of Britain re-entering the war, regardless of whatever treaty she signed with Germany regarding her cessation of hostilities et al.

[OTZ]

I'm unsure what you mean by this exactly, but the Manhatten Project was intended to produce atomic weapons to use against Germany. Japan merely pulled the short straw by lastig longer than Germany did.

EDIT: Or are you saying that the Mahatten Project was already ongoing, before Germany declared war against the US? After re-reading it, I think this might be what you're trying to say.

Yes - sorry for any confusion - that is exactly what I meant.

[Spartacus the Irish]

Yes - sorry for any confusion - that is exactly what I meant.

Goddamn I'm good. Genius is such a burden.

The Manhattan Project was borne out of fear of Nazi Germany and her atomic investigations - but as you say, it would have carried on regardless of whether the US and Germany were technically, diplomatically or de facto at war with each other.

[conon394]

After 1942 the German a-bomb project was divided between many institutes - the scientists diverted to other than the few major institutes were relocated on to other war-related projects.

No the program was always divided and rife with academic infighting. The only significant issue that occurred in 1941/42 was the transfer of the program from Army Ordinance to one of the party/civilian government bodies. The conflict with other hi-tech type projects existed well before the war since things like rockets and jet avoided treaty bans and those programs seemed to promise results in shorted order.

The best overview of the german program can be found in the article by Walter E. Grunden, Mark Walker, Masakatsu Yamazaki ‘Wartime Nuclear Weapons Research in Germany and Japan’ that I have cited before.

For example on the nature of the program (pg 112 -113):

‘From the beginning, the German uranium project had a decentralized structure: several university and Kaiser Wilhelm Institutes devoted some, most, or all of their efforts to nuclear fission and related research. These institutes were loosely held together by Kurt Diebner, a physicist and Army Ordnance scientist’

‘The research remained fragmented to the end, in part because neither the scientists nor the governmental and military authorities believed nuclear weapons could be made in time to influence the outcome of the war.’

As the article notes the Army Ordinance did not simply perfunctory dismiss the program in 1942 but questioned it scientists and received the answer that they did not see the Atomic weapons as realistic near term project.

So Army ordinance did hand the program over but it found a new patron who was hardly chopped liver – Speer. Speer liked the potential of the program and given that they (the Atomic scientists) had the ear of the man had far more authority than Army Ordinance ever had, the fact that the program was not expanded by simply maintained is damming. The leaders of the German program never thought they were doing more than pursing a far off, highly theoretical project and they were in no hurry because they were completely confident they were far ahead of anyone else.

No matter if the war with Russia did not happen, you have to add far too many what ifs to get a realistic German bomb program. So many that one might as well argue what if no war in Russia but also allow the US to create equivalent efforts to the Manhattan project to produce ultra long range jet bombers…


Also you are ignoring the fact that the German economy was never put on a rational total war footing until 43/44 and only than in the fact of defeat at the hands of a nation Germany had brutalized. The economy was divided by fiefdoms – the party mandarins, the four-year plan bureau, the army, industrial groups that had little desire to follow directives (as late as 1942 Speer could not find a single major German firm that was running a second shift – something that had been ordered in 1939). Thus there is every reason to believe that Germany sans a war with Russia would have probably totter along in its war with the UK and the US maybe a year longer or two (depending on just how many soldiers the US and UK chose to loose) but it still would not have kept pace with the massive industrial expansion managed by the western allies and only acted belatedly when facing defeat. Moreover it hard to think Hitler would get much buy in from his European allies – Hungary might make a land grab at the USSR when Germany was winning and fight to the bitter end to stave off Stalin, but really what would its incentive be to join an invasion of the UK or fear occupation by the US?

[Rodina38]

Saved our asses ?

I guess we have a different story to tell here in Poland.

Without R-M Pact life would be a lot of easier.

So NO is my answer.

How does the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact reflect the outcome of the Second World War?

[Danny_K_1]

Always wanted to do that.

[Boyar Son]

this thread is that old??

[Rodina38]

Always wanted to do that.

Always wanted to do that.

[Seleukos]

NO NECROS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!