Are Merchants Chance's Completly Random?

[ccllnply]

Ok, so here's the story. I'm playing as Portugal and after a war against Shawnee, Creek and that other one with my ally Spain a new CoT comes up. Seeing as its new it has 6 free slots and I have a 94.30 chance of getting in, so naturally seeing an easy way to get more money a send 5 merchants and only one gets in! I find this a little strange so basically is my chance of completing random?

[Fabolous]

When your merchants reached the CoT were there still 6 open spots? You said it came after a war with several North American tribes, was it located in North America? Given that distance it seems likely that many merchants could have taken up those spots in the long time it takes to reach distant CoT's. It is it a Spainish CoT? Further question, is 94.30 your compete chance or your placement chance? And what is your badboy?


But no, it is not random. I mean, maybe you just got very unlucky. Very unlucky. I would say there is about a 1/100,000 chance that happens. Maybe you are the one. Makes you feel special, doesn't it?

[Schwertmeister]

But no, it is not random. I mean, maybe you just got very unlucky. Very unlucky. I would say there is about a 1/100,000 chance that happens. Maybe you are the one. Makes you feel special, doesn't it?

Cmon what are you talking about? 1/100,000 chance that he doesn't get even two out of five merchants with a 94% chance? Are you kidding? It's just a random example, it happens all the time.

And what's the difference between compete chance and placement chance???

You got the same chance at every Trade center, so you have another value when placing a new merchant? Where does it show, is it a pop-up that only appears when you don't move the mouse for some seconds? Cause I didn't find it yet. I only see the 94% at the whole list, and at least after some hours of playing recognized that either the list/display is screwed, or even the whole merchant-system is screwed and doesn't calculate in a correct way.

[Fabolous]

And what's the difference between compete chance and placement chance???

Compete chance is your chance to push out another merchant. Placement chance is the chance for your merchant to take an open spot.

You got the same chance at every Trade center, so you have another value when placing a new merchant? Where does it show, is it a pop-up that only appears when you don't move the mouse for some seconds? Cause I didn't find it yet. I only see the 94% at the whole list, and at least after some hours of playing recognized that either the list/display is screwed, or even the whole merchant-system is screwed and doesn't calculate in a correct way.

You do not have the same chance at every CoT. You have the same base compete chance, I believe. However, you have to remember in practice placing your merchants in CoTs depends on the opposing merchants and on your reputation. High reputation kills trade quicker than anything in foreign CoTs.