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Thread: Iraq - 2010

  1. #1

    Default Iraq - 2010

    Following the success of this topic, I've decided to post the same here... How do you think that Iraq will be like in 2010?

    Here's mine:

    Iraq, 2010-

    After the assassination of Iraq's prime minister and the growing chaos in the Sunni Triangle and in Northern Iraq, 2007 brought an end to the coalition's relative control over Iraq.

    In 2007, President Bush's popularity plummeted to 36% after the Prime Minister of Iraq was assassinated by Sunni rebels loyal to Al-Zarqawi, and it again plummeted down to 24% after coalition deaths in Iraq reached the 3,000 mark. The coalition tried to quell the anarchistic state that took hold of Mosul and Tikrit in the next five months, but more than 600 coalition troops and 700 Iraqi troops died trying, for the insurgents played guerilla tactics that the coalition could not counter with tanks and jets.

    But a year later, the 2008 presidential election of the U.S. was held. President John McCain was elected, and he promised to make great changes in foreign policy and in Iraq. He did not, however, say whether he would remove the coalition troops out of Iraq, though many thought that he planned to do this anyways once he won the election. Mr. McCain managed to get the moderate Republican vote, and some of the moderate Democrat vote as well, but he was not able to get the extreme-right vote, which went to the new third party called "God's America", and neither did he achieve the extreme-left vote, which wanted the removal of troops in Iraq immediately. The election was very close, with President McCain getting 44% of the popular vote and 274 electoral votes, while Hillary Clinton for the Democratic party achieved a 43%, and the other 13% went to God's America Party, which was lead by the Christian fundamentalist Richard F. Fordshire. Some thought that the Democratic Party, lead by Hillary Clinton, would win the election after the division of the moderate Republican party and the extreme-right Republican party which ended up creating the new third party' God's America. But President McCain, with his great appeal to moderates, managed to prove most analysts wrong, and won a very tight election with 44% of the vote.

    Mr. McCain was sworn in on January 20th, 2009. The beggining of the first term for McCain proved to be very difficult, and as the new administration saw no end in sight for its quagmire in Iraq, and more opposition to the war erupted in both Congress and in the United States, President McCain called for a special session of Congress to handle the matter of Iraq. A senate vote was then held on the issue, and an unprecedented thing occured... the Republican moderates and the Democrats formed a temporary alliance against God's America Party and voted to remove the troops out of Iraq by May of 2009. 2/3 of the Senate voted for the removal of the troops, and McCain did not veto the vote, for his cabinet pressured him to accept the results and instead focus on domestic issues in the U.S.

    By May of 2009, the coalition troops started to retire from Iraq. The rest of the remaining coalition followed. By August, the last 1,000 troops departed from the Basrah port. By now, the coalition had suffered over 4,000 deaths, and half of the country was in chaos. Although civil war was already starting by early 2008 between the Shiites and the Sunnis after the natural death of the Ayatollah Al-Sistani, the war escalated into holocaust in August of 2009. In September of 2009, Southern Shiite Iraq seceded from Baghdad's control, and the capital was set up in Basrah. The new government in Southern Iraq was named the Islamic Republic of Basrah, and the government formed close ties with neighboring Iran. The Sunnis were still fighting with the Shiites in Baghdad, but a continuing absence of control from the remaining Iraqi governing council made Baghdad turn into a state of anarchy. Hundreds of thousands died and mass lootings took place all over Northern and Central Iraq.

    Following the Sunni-Shiite civil war of 2009, the Kurds seceded from the Iraqi state in Janurary of 2010 and created their own country in Northern Iraq, the New Kurdistan. The Kurds instated a short-term dictator in power to stabilize the country after months of civil war. The president of the New Kurdistan pledged to bring order back to his homeland, and he underwent a campaign in Mosul to finish uprooting the Sunni rebels that were left in some areas of the city. The Turkish government did not recognize the New Kurdistan, and was menacing Kurdistan with invasion, but Turkey showed restraint after the EU politically intervened in the matter.

    The future of Iraq is uncertain... Two new states have been created, and the center is still in war with each other. The oil-rich Islamic Republic of Basrah has finally managed to stabilize itself and is beggining reconstruction. Iran is helping with Basrah's reconstruction and has gained access to some precious oil fields that the Basran government gave in exchange for reconstruction and military help. Radical Islamists from around the globe have migrated to Baghdad, Ar Ramadi, Fallujah, Tikrit, and Baqubah, and analysts believe that civil war between warlords in central Iraq will continue for a few more years. Al-Qaeda has declared victory over the United States, and the radical Islamist movement in the Middle East has heavily increased, causing the downfall of the Saudi Arabian monarchic state, and causing civil war in Jordania and parts of Syria.
    This is all guessing... I'll probably get 3/4 of what I wrote wrong in the future... but I wrote this so that in 2010, I can read what I wrote in 2005 about what I thought would happen in 2010. It will be quite funny when I get a hold of what I wrote today in five years... it's like looking at your 5th grade drawings or reading stories that you wrote in the 7th grade.

    So... now it's your turn... write away.
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  2. #2
    Cobra's Avatar Earl of Boof
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    Hmm, thats dismal. I really hope that theres no coalition left there by the end of 2005. Much less double ought nine.

  3. #3
    Marshal Qin's Avatar Bow to ME!!!
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    I can't see the US withdrawing without a 'face saving' gesture. My guess:

    a strike on Syria prompted by an upsurge of violence in Palestine and Lebanon blamed mostly on Hezbollah(sp). Israel cracks down once again on insurgents and maintains a 'flying force' designed to thwart attacks before they cross 'the wall'. Palestine is kept in a state of near anarchy despite Israel's withdrawals. When revenge for the assasination of their spiritual leader finally comes, it is enough to shock the world and temporarily give Israel a free hand to 'pursue' terrorists across the Lebanese border. Syria objects and send units to 'help protect Lebanese sovereignty'. The US bombs the crap out of the syrian units and 'terrorist' training camps and claims victory over terrorism west of Iraq.
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    Note: Please no flaming (not at former) and this is just my honest opinion.

    By 2010 I believe that the United States will have given up on democracy in Iraq and will have declared Martial Law at the very least as to the constant rebellions in the area. I believe that they will keep sending troops up till around 2009 when they realize that brute force will do nothing. At that time they will attempt more "friendly" negociations with the public before turning over the country to rebels in exchange for a percentage of the oil fields. The government will say that they did this to increase the income and economy of the United States whilst lowering casualties in Iraq to almost nothing. The american people will accept this as right now many are starting to see the light of the futility of Iraq.

    They will accept it because of the economic plans that the government will have been preparing for this incident, that with the lowered casualties will allow the government to get away with it. By 2010 Iraq will be empty of soldiers, it will have erupted several times into all out civil war and will be divided into a warzone across the entire country. The U.S. will only protect its oil fields and get a vast sum of money whilst losing few troops.

  5. #5

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    Anything original, anyone...or do we have to do a cynical and bromidic 'reprise' of Vietnam with the current Administration as modern day Nixon? Schadenfreude is the spiteful glee of a mediocrity: don't mark yourself.

    Sad so many wish to see the United States fail in Iraq-an extremely mean-spirited stance when the lives of 25 million people are at stake, and the future of an entire region is threatened.
    The United States are going to succeed this time, but I find it painfully ironic that so many of you deride the 'conservative mainstream media'; yet rely on it for all your bad news out of Iraq.

    It's not particularly strange that the greatest defeats the present Administration faces will be the PR battles in the Western world, and not the street fights in Mosul or Sadr city of Baghdad.


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  6. #6
    Marshal Qin's Avatar Bow to ME!!!
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    and your prediction for Iraq 2010 is......? Comments about other peoples ideas was not the intention of this thread afaik.
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  7. #7
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    Sorry Marshall Quin, I do understand your comment, but I must comment on how....refreshingly optimistic a view Aristophanes has. It seems the primary function of history is to help us shape the future, and when you see a situation very similar in some ways to a historical event before, with parallels such as an enemy that will only fight on their terms, costly guerilla tactics which constantly deplete morale on the home front, a war unpopular outside of and inside America and a rapidly rising death toll, it is difficult to disassociate the past with the present.

    That said, I don't believe it will be identical to Nam. I think ultimately, Iraq will fall back into dictatorship, but one virtually controlled by the US. This will ensure America keeps its oil supplies up, and creates new jobs and a generally better living standard in Iraq. Every four years, the public will go through the charade of an election, but ultimately any popular extremist groups will be prevented from winning. So freedom and democracy may still be an illusion, but at the very least the Iraqis will have a reasonably benign dictator, with any excesses held in check by the power of the US. Not to say there will be complete peace, Al-Quaida will keep agents there to undermine government support, and there may be a rough road due to guerilla tactics and potential secessions (perhaps Basra and Kurdistan will already be gone) but there will finally be a measure of peace and stability. The fortunes for Iraq seem to hang in the balance, though, and could slip either way.

    Just my two cents.
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    Spook153's Avatar Civitate
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    If the coalition troops remain, then Iraq in 2010 will probably look pretty much as it does now although there will be the fig leaf of a "democratically" elected government to preserve the coalition's modesty.

    If, however, they leave the picture will be quite different. I really don't think that comparisons with Vietnam are applicable here - emotive as the "last helicopter " images might be. The situation there was quite different as was the culture of the peoples involved.

    In the absence of foreign troops, I think that Iraq in 2010 will look like Afghanistan after the Russians left. There will be a powerless central government that barely controls Baghdad unable to control the feuding warlords from the various ethnic groups in the provinces. Eventually we will see a slow slide into fundamentalism finishing up with a Taliban style government covertly manipulated and backed by Iran.
    That truth should be silent I had almost forgot.

  9. #9

    Default Re: Iraq- 2010

    A massive 5 Year Bump, but I found this while doing some research!

    Sib painted a great picture but as we all know Obama was elected. There is civil strife but troops are still in Iraq. In some ways Sib was more optimistic then the reality, comments?

    Well, if I, Belisarius, the Black Prince, and you all agree on something, I really don't think there can be any further discussion.
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  10. #10
    Copperknickers II's Avatar quaeri, si sapis
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    Default Re: Iraq- 2010

    Spook was pretty much spot on, anyway.
    A new mobile phone tower went up in a town in the USA, and the local newspaper asked a number of people what they thought of it. Some said they noticed their cellphone reception was better. Some said they noticed the tower was affecting their health.

    A local administrator was asked to comment. He nodded sagely, and said simply: "Wow. And think about how much more pronounced these effects will be once the tower is actually operational."

  11. #11
    Farnan's Avatar Saviors of the Japanese
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    He was way wrong.

    Sistani is still alive and the Sunni-Shi'ite war has all but ended.

    Kurdistan shows no sign of rebelling.

    And Southern Iraq has revolted at all.

    In all the article was very very off.

    Oh and spook is far off too. Afghanistan after the Soviets left just controlled Kabul, the Iraqi government controls the entire nation and is in no danger of immediate fall.
    “The nation that will insist upon drawing a broad line of demarcation between the fighting man and the thinking man is liable to find its fighting done by fools and its thinking by cowards.”

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  12. #12

    Default Re: Iraq- 2010

    Quote Originally Posted by Future Redleg Officer View Post

    Oh and spook is far off too. Afghanistan after the Soviets left just controlled Kabul, the Iraqi government controls the entire nation and is in no danger of immediate fall.
    He said in the absence of Foreign troops. He wasn't that far off.
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  13. #13
    Farnan's Avatar Saviors of the Japanese
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    Default Re: Iraq- 2010

    Quote Originally Posted by Markas View Post
    He said in the absence of Foreign troops. He wasn't that far off.
    Even still, US troops are drawing down and there is still not an immediate threat (there are long term issues, but not it will collapse right after the US leaves) of the government falling, and it controls a majority of its nation. Far better than the Democratic Republic of Afghanistan that just survived because none of the Mujahideen groups could agree who gets Kabul (and the government only controlled Kabul)l.

    Its like saying Fiji is like the United Kingdom.
    “The nation that will insist upon drawing a broad line of demarcation between the fighting man and the thinking man is liable to find its fighting done by fools and its thinking by cowards.”

    —Sir William Francis Butler

  14. #14

    Default Re: Iraq- 2010

    Quote Originally Posted by Future Redleg Officer View Post
    Even still, US troops are drawing down and there is still not an immediate threat (there are long term issues, but not it will collapse right after the US leaves) of the government falling, and it controls a majority of its nation.
    Too early to tell. I'll wait for the absence of foreign troops before drawing conclusions. Even diminished troop numbers provide a springboard for a return.

    Its like saying Fiji is like the United Kingdom.
    I would never say that- Fiji has much better weather.
    'When people stop believing in God, they don’t believe in nothing — they believe in anything. '

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  15. #15
    Farnan's Avatar Saviors of the Japanese
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    Default Re: Iraq- 2010

    Quote Originally Posted by Markas View Post
    Too early to tell. I'll wait for the absence of foreign troops before drawing conclusions. Even diminished troop numbers provide a springboard for a return.
    Even so, signs should show.

    It was obvious that the DRA would fall without Soviet help, so much the Soviets were surprised it lasted two years. I would not call it a model nation, but nor would I say its on the verge of collapse. A closer call may be to the Weimar Republic in the 1920s, where it can stand or it may not stand (the Weimar didn't but it had a chance).
    “The nation that will insist upon drawing a broad line of demarcation between the fighting man and the thinking man is liable to find its fighting done by fools and its thinking by cowards.”

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  16. #16

    Default Re: Iraq- 2010

    Quote Originally Posted by Future Redleg Officer View Post
    Even so, signs should show.

    It was obvious that the DRA would fall without Soviet help, so much the Soviets were surprised it lasted two years. I would not call it a model nation, but nor would I say its on the verge of collapse. A closer call may be to the Weimar Republic in the 1920s, where it can stand or it may not stand (the Weimar didn't but it had a chance).
    Exactly, they were destroyed by circumstances that were not expected; the DRA by the fall of the soviet union and Weimer because of the Wall street crash.

    There is no reason to form any conclusions because there aren't 'signs', imo.
    'When people stop believing in God, they don’t believe in nothing — they believe in anything. '

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  17. #17
    Farnan's Avatar Saviors of the Japanese
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    Default Re: Iraq- 2010

    Quote Originally Posted by Markas View Post
    Exactly, they were destroyed by circumstances that were not expected; the DRA by the fall of the soviet union and Weimer because of the Wall street crash.

    There is no reason to form any conclusions because there aren't 'signs', imo.
    But then again there are no reasons to compare it to the DRA either. That argument works both ways, and in both cases there were signs.

    The DRA didn't fall because of the fall of the Soviet Union, but because Hekmatyr decided that he was going to take Kabul himself and broke the Mujahideen Council's agreement (that no one would take Kabul until a government was set up). The DRA's fall was obvious to anyone, even the Soviets.

    The Weimar faced the same problems as Iraq's in some ways, in that both have long term issues that must be settled. The Weimar Republic never settled them so when the economic growth period ended they flared up. Iraq has the same issue where it looks not to fall immediately but if the long term issues (refugee resettlement and Kirkuk primarily) are not solved it can fall like the Weimar did.
    “The nation that will insist upon drawing a broad line of demarcation between the fighting man and the thinking man is liable to find its fighting done by fools and its thinking by cowards.”

    —Sir William Francis Butler

  18. #18

    Default Re: Iraq- 2010

    Quote Originally Posted by Future Redleg Officer View Post
    But then again there are no reasons to compare it to the DRA either. That argument works both ways, and in both cases there were signs.
    Well I hope you're right but I'll still wait for the withdrawal before making any prediction on Iraq's future. There are still thousands of troops there either way.
    'When people stop believing in God, they don’t believe in nothing — they believe in anything. '

    -Emile Cammaerts' book The Laughing Prophets (1937)

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  19. #19
    Freddie's Avatar The Voice of Reason
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    Default Re: Iraq- 2010

    Quote Originally Posted by Markas View Post

    I would never say that- Fiji has much better weather.
    Subjective, Fiji gets earthquakes and volcanic eruptions Britain doesn't.

    Well 2010 is here and were in still in Iraq, a black man is the president of the USA, Britain is run by an over bearing Stalinist and all the worlds attention has shifted away from Iraq which is relatively calm compared to 5 years ago and Afghanistan is back on the agenda oh and Bin Laden is still a large.

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