Dwarven Fortress... MAFIA!! (concluded)

[Pra]

BTW I am in the game, just caught up in RL stuff for the past day or so, but I did respond to confirm to Jubal.

yup, everyone on the list is in the game. (Only Dinadan is going to be a way due to a roadtrip, which I am aware of.)

[DisgruntledGoat]

(just remembered Dinadan is on a roadtrip, so we can discount him for now)

Okay, so far we've not had much to go on except for those initial salvos.

Gary88 - 2 (pannonian, Ferrets)
pannonian - 1 (Seamus Fermanagh)
Estlander - 2 (SirPaladin, Gary88)

Of those that have voted, I'd like to examine SirPaladin, just for now.

slightly frivolous
http://www.twcenter.net/forums/showp...0&postcount=55

A non sequitur at best
http://www.twcenter.net/forums/showp...7&postcount=51

Since this post http://www.twcenter.net/forums/showp...2&postcount=74 however,

We've got nothing better to go on other than the fact that Gary88 has continued discussion, but SirPaladin remains quiet

From looking at posting behavior, my FOS is only slightly on SirPaladin and Estlander, namely because they've used the most frivolous arguments here with little base in actual suspicion (factual evidence in posting behavior.)

I don't see much reason to place suspicion on Estlander yet, his was a joke to start the thread which was followed up by a joke from Gary. A joking banter is what I see there. I would be, as scottishranger said, more suspicious of those that are jumping on estlander. Who made himself an easy target to start with. So I am with you when suspecting SirPaladin but not with Estlander. Instead I wonder about Gary. Who has made it clear in many of his posts that he wishes us to believe he is a dwarf.

[Pra]

Well, I've got to go for now. Hopefully no one gets bad wagoning till we have at least a statement from everyone here.

[Gary88]

looking back whilst i am still abit suspicious of Estlanders 'everyone will pick on me' remark. i was very hasty voting for him, i think if i hadnt done it then i certainly wouldnt feel confident enough to do so currently. it was partly the fact i was new at this that i saw someone else vote for him and so i did aswell, i wasnt really sure how the game worked so i panicked.

my FOS if you will atm
Esty: nothing big but his opening remark makes me wonder
mim: now Game theory is very complex but he did seem to be indecisive and completely go back on what he said to start with, his excuses are plausible but a little shakey in places. i really dont buy the whole wont explain tiill we all pick a number biz, just worries me a bit.


Seamus: those damned irish!![/sarcasm]

[Gary88]

come to think of it seamus hasnt said anything yet still managed to vote, which is abit odd

[pannonian]

come to think of it seamus hasnt said anything yet still managed to vote, which is abit odd

He's an Org denizen who joined up for this to try and attract players for his upcoming Capo 2 game (which I urge everyone to join once the signups start). I've PMed him telling him the game's started.

[Rhinosaur]

I'm suspicious of all non TWCers right off the bat. The ORG sounds kinda gobliny, doesn't it?

[Gary88]

The ORG sounds kinda gobliny, doesn't it?

true but Jubal barca picked all our roles so i assume he did it at random, however he could have been influenced in his decisions by personal traits in each player. of course there is the potential that he (subconsciously or not) choose seamus as a goblin because he was a new non TWCer but an equal chance that he picked him as a dwarf because of that. basically i dont think it really helps that much

[DisgruntledGoat]

I am now taking my leave for today. I'll wait myself to see what EVERYONE has to say before casting a vote.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Right.

To begin. UNVOTE: Pannonian

As an org denizen -- where most of these games begin with a night phase start -- I made the (dumb) assumption that my vote could not be counted as it was made off phase and before game start. It was meant in jest.

Tally:

Gary88 - 2 (pannonian, Ferrets)
Estlander - 2 (SirPaladin, Gary88)


Now, to the substance at hand -- or lack thereof.

A Day One vote is usually an exercise in randomness. It would be unusual for any mafioso (goblin) to display some gaffe that would mark them for lynching so early. In this case, we don't even have any kills to work with, so we can't begin to get in the minds of the opposition as yet.

It is a safe presumption that the dwarves outnumber the goblins, probably by a margin of 2-1 or better, at this stage in the game. Any random lynching is, therefore, statistically more likely to pick a dwarf than a goblin. Nevertheless, NOT lynching leaves the goblins with no pressure or worries -- only kill opportunities. Lynching is the better choice, save for a late round where the delay in numbers reduction can be demonstrated to be of more value than taking a chance on reducing the mafia.

So, how to decide who gets the chop?

Random systems have an appeal because of their impartiality. However, as Chandra' in particular has noted above, assuring the impartial application in an electronic forum is less perfect. Even if this is surmounted, however, I don't think it's the best choice.

I actually oppose the use of a random system because it would decrease the value of an early round lynch vote. Since all players would know it to have been determined at random, there would be little/no incentive to provide a defense -- it would encourage the player picked to respond in "well, I'll just take my lumps since it was randomly done" fashion.

By picking a player -- even with bandwagoning as the strategy -- you are more likely to evoke and impassioned defense. THIS is the key to success. It's early, and we can't have narrowed the field at all, but if we generate responses of substance these CAN be used to "cross-check" later responses and to ferret out those among us who're wearing false beards to hide their gobliny faces.

We have two named so far, but the point is to generate responses so...

Vote: Chandra'

You have analyzed others posts much, and called for commentary a good bit, but have provided little of your own. Note, this is a pressure vote.

New Tally:

Gary88 - 2 (pannonian, Ferrets)
Chandrashekar - 1 (Seamus Fermanagh)
Estlander - 2 (SirPaladin, Gary88)


General Query: Why do my pages load so slowly on this forum? Is there a control center setting I am mis-using?

[Pra]

NOT lynching leaves the goblins with no pressure or worries -- only kill opportunities.

This makes absolutely no sense. You want us to pick a target right away in the early rounds? Isn't it more reasonable to first wait and see a response from everyone, then make a judgment based on whatever someone says. A gaffe may not be 'likely' but it is entirely possible that it may happen.

New Tally:

Gary88 - 2 (pannonian, Ferrets)
Chandrashekar - 1 (Seamus Fermanagh)
Estlander - 2 (SirPaladin, Gary88)

Vote: Chandra'

You have analyzed others posts much, and called for commentary a good bit, but have provided little of your own. Note, this is a pressure vote.

I'm terribly confused on how analyzing others posts is not commentary. What other commentary can I provide other than analyzing someone's posts? Is there a better way to determine if someone is a goblin/mafioso? If there is, I'd really like to know. What is this a pressure vote for?



Rather, I'd like to ask why you are so keen on getting a move on with this lynch vote. You've claimed this will aid us dwarves better because waiting provides Goblins with more 'kill opportunities'. That's specious at best, and I find it very hard to buy. How does waiting and prolonging discussion aid the Goblins by providing more kill opportunities? To my knowledge there is only one night session isn't there? That's one Goblin kill opp. per night. It doesn't get extended by discussion at all, now does it?

I hope this is a test of some sort (like Sim in the last round), but my FoS is edging more towards you. Unless I've misunderstood your post, you're calling for a quick lynch right away, and your reasoning is highly questionable. How does a quick lynch at any stage of the game help the townie cause at all?

[Jubal_Barca]

I won't tell you any numbers, this is a secret setup. I will however tell you that the nightkill numbers won't be of any use whatsoever.

OFFICIAL VOTE VOUNT;

Estlander 2 (Paladin, Gary88)
Gary88 2 (pannonian, Ferrets)
Chandra 1 (Seamus)

Well done on the amount of play so far though folks.

[Enemy of the State]

God you guys posted a lot when i was sleeping! Anyway, some stuff on Gary88 and SirPaladin:

well you just have a gobliny air about you esty...

I was the one to post first, with a bad joke. Gary88 then jump on me, claiming I'm suspicious.

Vote: Estlander

There is something... suspicious.

SirPaladin then joins him.

Then, Gary posts this:
[QUOTEexactly, if you are a goblin you are automatically, a killer/liar in the game so you could feel nervous/guilty etc][/QUOTE]

And, surprisingly, SirPaladin now accuses Gary88 of suspiciousness

Waaaait a second. How do you know that? You must have read the PM text goblins get! I'll keep an eye on you.
And on Estlander...

Scum strategy perhaps? Accusing eachother but still voting for the same target to avoid suspicion?

[pannonian]

Rather, I'd like to ask why you are so keen on getting a move on with this lynch vote. You've claimed this will aid us dwarves better because waiting provides Goblins with more 'kill opportunities'. That's specious at best, and I find it very hard to buy. How does waiting and prolonging discussion aid the Goblins by providing more kill opportunities? To my knowledge there is only one night session isn't there? That's one Goblin kill opp. per night. It doesn't get extended by discussion at all, now does it?

In Org games, there's a No lynch option, which if it is the most voted for option in any round, results in no lynching that day. IIRC it works best when there's a known cop being protected by an unknown doctor, as it removes the chance of accidentally lynching the doctor while giving the cop a chance to investigate (I've personally never seen the attraction of No Lynch). The important thing to remember about Org games is that most of them operate on a time basis - the town has 1 or 2 RL days to discuss the lynch, then the lynch is carried out on whomever is leading the vote. Thus discussion time isn't extensible in them.

I suspect the two of you are just suspicious of each other because you're not used to each other's playing styles. Having seen both of you in action, I see nothing particularly untoward so far.

[Arakorn]

Just checking in here (was sleeping, duh!).

I'll hold my vote (and commentaries) so far, so as to not be suspicious... (this post will still make me though )

[Jubal_Barca]

Just to confirm Seamus, we go until there's a lynch, although if discussion dries up I may put deadlines on.

[Arakorn]

Who said that on other forums the game began with a night? I'd prefer this way personally, as now we're sure that there are villains amongst us, even though noone has gotten killed yet!

[DisgruntledGoat]

After a thorough rest I have decided to cast my vote. Gary seems to be jumping all over the place to look innocent. so

Vote: Gary88

New Tally
Estlander 2 (Paladin, Gary88)
Gary88 3 (pannonian, Ferrets, DisgruntledGoat)
Chandra 1 (Seamus)

[scottishranger]

Well, I am happy there was so much discussion last night, a good read.

I vote Sir Paladin

He has been way to quiet so far, in fact he has added really nothing to the conversation, other than accusing others for frivolous reasons.

[Arakorn]

For me the most suspicious persons ATM are Gary and Paladin. Mimirswell is also a bit suspicious, however I firmly believe he's just trying to do the dwarves best.